**Current forecasts indicate the lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 30, 2026, will most likely fall in the 13–15°C range, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 14°C and 15°C.** Multiple numerical weather prediction sources, including GFS-based guidance and local models, show overnight minima around 13–16°C under partly cloudy to clear skies with light southerly winds (2–4 m/s). These conditions promote moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs of 25–27°C, with dew points near 11–13°C limiting further temperature drops. Recent model consensus has held steady over the past 24–48 hours, reflecting typical late-August climatology for Warsaw (historical August minima average near 15°C). Light winds and limited cloud cover overnight are the dominant factors favoring the 12–15°C cluster over colder (≤11°C) or warmer (≥16°C) outcomes. Higher probabilities for extremes remain low because current steering patterns and moisture profiles make significant deviations unlikely before resolution. Traders appear to be weighting the tight forecast spread and stable high-pressure influence, with the 14°C outcome capturing the strongest consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 30?
11°C 44%
14°C 39%
16°C 30%
12°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
9°C or below
6%
10°C
16%
11°C
44%
12°C
29%
13°C
25%
14°C
39%
15°C
27%
16°C
30%
17°C
14%
18°C
13%
19°C or higher
8%
11°C 44%
14°C 39%
16°C 30%
12°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
9°C or below
$130 Vol.
6%
10°C
$0 Vol.
16%
11°C
$0 Vol.
44%
12°C
$0 Vol.
29%
13°C
$0 Vol.
25%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
30%
17°C
$0 Vol.
14%
18°C
$135 Vol.
13%
19°C or higher
$57 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts indicate the lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 30, 2026, will most likely fall in the 13–15°C range, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 14°C and 15°C.** Multiple numerical weather prediction sources, including GFS-based guidance and local models, show overnight minima around 13–16°C under partly cloudy to clear skies with light southerly winds (2–4 m/s). These conditions promote moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs of 25–27°C, with dew points near 11–13°C limiting further temperature drops.
Recent model consensus has held steady over the past 24–48 hours, reflecting typical late-August climatology for Warsaw (historical August minima average near 15°C). Light winds and limited cloud cover overnight are the dominant factors favoring the 12–15°C cluster over colder (≤11°C) or warmer (≥16°C) outcomes. Higher probabilities for extremes remain low because current steering patterns and moisture profiles make significant deviations unlikely before resolution. Traders appear to be weighting the tight forecast spread and stable high-pressure influence, with the 14°C outcome capturing the strongest consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$322End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts indicate the lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 30, 2026, will most likely fall in the 13–15°C range, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 14°C and 15°C.** Multiple numerical weather prediction sources, including GFS-based guidance and local models, show overnight minima around 13–16°C under partly cloudy to clear skies with light southerly winds (2–4 m/s). These conditions promote moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs of 25–27°C, with dew points near 11–13°C limiting further temperature drops.
Recent model consensus has held steady over the past 24–48 hours, reflecting typical late-August climatology for Warsaw (historical August minima average near 15°C). Light winds and limited cloud cover overnight are the dominant factors favoring the 12–15°C cluster over colder (≤11°C) or warmer (≥16°C) outcomes. Higher probabilities for extremes remain low because current steering patterns and moisture profiles make significant deviations unlikely before resolution. Traders appear to be weighting the tight forecast spread and stable high-pressure influence, with the 14°C outcome capturing the strongest consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$322End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts indicate the lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 30, 2026, will most likely fall in the 13–15°C range, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 14°C and 15°C.** Multiple numerical weather prediction sources, including GFS-based guidance and local models, show overnight minima around 13–16°C under partly cloudy to clear skies with light southerly winds (2–4 m/s). These conditions promote moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs of 25–27°C, with dew points near 11–13°C limiting further temperature drops. Recent model consensus has held steady over the past 24–48 hours, reflecting typical late-August climatology for Warsaw (historical August minima average near 15°C). Light winds and limited cloud cover overnight are the dominant factors favoring the 12–15°C cluster over colder (≤11°C) or warmer (≥16°C) outcomes. Higher probabilities for extremes remain low because current steering patterns and moisture profiles make significant deviations unlikely before resolution. Traders appear to be weighting the tight forecast spread and stable high-pressure influence, with the 14°C outcome capturing the strongest consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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