Recent forecast models from sources including IMGW-PIB and international runs point to overnight lows in Warsaw of 14–16°C on August 29, driven by increasing cloud cover, light showers, and moderate southerly winds under a weakening high-pressure system. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared with clearer nights earlier in the week, keeping the minimum temperature from dropping into the low teens. Trader sentiment remains closely split between 13°C and 15°C because model guidance shows small but consequential differences in timing of cloud breaks and precipitation, with historical August minima near 15°C providing additional context. Updated model runs and official observations through the night will determine which threshold resolves the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 29?
15°C 45%
13°C 45%
16°C 27%
17°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
11°C or below
2%
12°C
2%
13°C
45%
14°C
24%
15°C
45%
16°C
27%
17°C
27%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C or higher
1%
15°C 45%
13°C 45%
16°C 27%
17°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
11°C or below
$145 Vol.
2%
12°C
$5 Vol.
2%
13°C
$16 Vol.
45%
14°C
$0 Vol.
24%
15°C
$0 Vol.
45%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$110 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$20 Vol.
1%
21°C or higher
$25 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including IMGW-PIB and international runs point to overnight lows in Warsaw of 14–16°C on August 29, driven by increasing cloud cover, light showers, and moderate southerly winds under a weakening high-pressure system. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared with clearer nights earlier in the week, keeping the minimum temperature from dropping into the low teens. Trader sentiment remains closely split between 13°C and 15°C because model guidance shows small but consequential differences in timing of cloud breaks and precipitation, with historical August minima near 15°C providing additional context. Updated model runs and official observations through the night will determine which threshold resolves the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$346End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including IMGW-PIB and international runs point to overnight lows in Warsaw of 14–16°C on August 29, driven by increasing cloud cover, light showers, and moderate southerly winds under a weakening high-pressure system. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared with clearer nights earlier in the week, keeping the minimum temperature from dropping into the low teens. Trader sentiment remains closely split between 13°C and 15°C because model guidance shows small but consequential differences in timing of cloud breaks and precipitation, with historical August minima near 15°C providing additional context. Updated model runs and official observations through the night will determine which threshold resolves the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$346End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources including IMGW-PIB and international runs point to overnight lows in Warsaw of 14–16°C on August 29, driven by increasing cloud cover, light showers, and moderate southerly winds under a weakening high-pressure system. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared with clearer nights earlier in the week, keeping the minimum temperature from dropping into the low teens. Trader sentiment remains closely split between 13°C and 15°C because model guidance shows small but consequential differences in timing of cloud breaks and precipitation, with historical August minima near 15°C providing additional context. Updated model runs and official observations through the night will determine which threshold resolves the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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