Recent forecast guidance from sources including the Met Office and WeatherBug points to an overnight minimum near 10–11°C in Wellington on August 30, driven by clear skies and persistent northwesterly winds that promote moderate radiative cooling while limiting extreme drops through mixing. These conditions align with late-winter climatology for the region, where typical minima range 8–11°C, and explain why trader probabilities cluster tightly around 9–11°C outcomes with little support for sub-8°C or double-digit highs overnight. Updated model runs from ECMWF and GFS, plus local MetService briefings, will further refine wind speeds and cloud cover that directly influence the precise low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 30?
8°C 50%
12°C 50%
7°C 39%
11°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
6°C or below
5%
7°C
39%
8°C
50%
9°C
27%
10°C
27%
11°C
31%
12°C
50%
13°C
8%
14°C
3%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
1%
8°C 50%
12°C 50%
7°C 39%
11°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
6°C or below
$5 Vol.
5%
7°C
$0 Vol.
39%
8°C
$10 Vol.
50%
9°C
$0 Vol.
27%
10°C
$0 Vol.
27%
11°C
$0 Vol.
31%
12°C
$0 Vol.
50%
13°C
$5 Vol.
8%
14°C
$5 Vol.
3%
15°C
$5 Vol.
1%
16°C or higher
$145 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from sources including the Met Office and WeatherBug points to an overnight minimum near 10–11°C in Wellington on August 30, driven by clear skies and persistent northwesterly winds that promote moderate radiative cooling while limiting extreme drops through mixing. These conditions align with late-winter climatology for the region, where typical minima range 8–11°C, and explain why trader probabilities cluster tightly around 9–11°C outcomes with little support for sub-8°C or double-digit highs overnight. Updated model runs from ECMWF and GFS, plus local MetService briefings, will further refine wind speeds and cloud cover that directly influence the precise low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$175End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from sources including the Met Office and WeatherBug points to an overnight minimum near 10–11°C in Wellington on August 30, driven by clear skies and persistent northwesterly winds that promote moderate radiative cooling while limiting extreme drops through mixing. These conditions align with late-winter climatology for the region, where typical minima range 8–11°C, and explain why trader probabilities cluster tightly around 9–11°C outcomes with little support for sub-8°C or double-digit highs overnight. Updated model runs from ECMWF and GFS, plus local MetService briefings, will further refine wind speeds and cloud cover that directly influence the precise low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$175End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from sources including the Met Office and WeatherBug points to an overnight minimum near 10–11°C in Wellington on August 30, driven by clear skies and persistent northwesterly winds that promote moderate radiative cooling while limiting extreme drops through mixing. These conditions align with late-winter climatology for the region, where typical minima range 8–11°C, and explain why trader probabilities cluster tightly around 9–11°C outcomes with little support for sub-8°C or double-digit highs overnight. Updated model runs from ECMWF and GFS, plus local MetService briefings, will further refine wind speeds and cloud cover that directly influence the precise low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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