Steven Horsford, the Democratic incumbent in Nevada’s 4th congressional district since 2019, holds a substantial advantage heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat carries a modest Democratic lean, reflected in Horsford’s 52.7% win in 2024 and its “Likely Democratic” rating from nonpartisan forecasters. Cody Whipple’s June 9 Republican primary victory has not altered the race’s fundamentals, as the district remains low-priority terrain for national Republican resources. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 90% because structural factors—incumbency, fundraising patterns, and the district’s partisan voting index—have historically produced consistent advantages for the sitting member in similar environments. No major late-cycle developments have yet emerged to shift this consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNV-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NV-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
88%
Республиканская партия
12%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$1,856 Объем
88%
Республиканская партия
$1,929 Объем
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steven Horsford, the Democratic incumbent in Nevada’s 4th congressional district since 2019, holds a substantial advantage heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat carries a modest Democratic lean, reflected in Horsford’s 52.7% win in 2024 and its “Likely Democratic” rating from nonpartisan forecasters. Cody Whipple’s June 9 Republican primary victory has not altered the race’s fundamentals, as the district remains low-priority terrain for national Republican resources. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 90% because structural factors—incumbency, fundraising patterns, and the district’s partisan voting index—have historically produced consistent advantages for the sitting member in similar environments. No major late-cycle developments have yet emerged to shift this consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Объем
$3,785Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steven Horsford, the Democratic incumbent in Nevada’s 4th congressional district since 2019, holds a substantial advantage heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat carries a modest Democratic lean, reflected in Horsford’s 52.7% win in 2024 and its “Likely Democratic” rating from nonpartisan forecasters. Cody Whipple’s June 9 Republican primary victory has not altered the race’s fundamentals, as the district remains low-priority terrain for national Republican resources. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 90% because structural factors—incumbency, fundraising patterns, and the district’s partisan voting index—have historically produced consistent advantages for the sitting member in similar environments. No major late-cycle developments have yet emerged to shift this consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$3,785Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Steven Horsford, the Democratic incumbent in Nevada’s 4th congressional district since 2019, holds a substantial advantage heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat carries a modest Democratic lean, reflected in Horsford’s 52.7% win in 2024 and its “Likely Democratic” rating from nonpartisan forecasters. Cody Whipple’s June 9 Republican primary victory has not altered the race’s fundamentals, as the district remains low-priority terrain for national Republican resources. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 90% because structural factors—incumbency, fundraising patterns, and the district’s partisan voting index—have historically produced consistent advantages for the sitting member in similar environments. No major late-cycle developments have yet emerged to shift this consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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