Recent polls from state-linked firms like FOM and WCIOM show United Russia far ahead, followed by a tight cluster among LDPR, New People, KPRF, and SRZP in the single digits to low teens, with Yabloko removed from the party-list ballot after its August Supreme Court disqualification. This leaves the contest for fourth place highly sensitive to minor shifts in voter intention, turnout patterns, single-mandate outcomes, and the three-day voting process scheduled for 18–20 September. Reduced candidate fields and limited genuine competition have kept implied probabilities bunched near even across several systemic opposition parties, as traders price the narrow margins typical of these controlled parliamentary contests. Late campaign developments or regional variations could still reorder the lower standings before results are finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedA Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) 52%
New People (NL) 47%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 45%
Civic Platform (GP) 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
30%
New People (NL)
47%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
45%
Civic Platform (GP)
26%
Rodina
22%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
8%
United Russia (ER)
4%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) 52%
New People (NL) 47%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 45%
Civic Platform (GP) 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
$20 Vol.
30%
New People (NL)
$0 Vol.
47%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
$10 Vol.
45%
Civic Platform (GP)
$28 Vol.
26%
Rodina
$43 Vol.
22%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
$40 Vol.
8%
United Russia (ER)
$136 Vol.
4%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Recent polls from state-linked firms like FOM and WCIOM show United Russia far ahead, followed by a tight cluster among LDPR, New People, KPRF, and SRZP in the single digits to low teens, with Yabloko removed from the party-list ballot after its August Supreme Court disqualification. This leaves the contest for fourth place highly sensitive to minor shifts in voter intention, turnout patterns, single-mandate outcomes, and the three-day voting process scheduled for 18–20 September. Reduced candidate fields and limited genuine competition have kept implied probabilities bunched near even across several systemic opposition parties, as traders price the narrow margins typical of these controlled parliamentary contests. Late campaign developments or regional variations could still reorder the lower standings before results are finalized.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 8:42 PM ET
Volume
$276End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Recent polls from state-linked firms like FOM and WCIOM show United Russia far ahead, followed by a tight cluster among LDPR, New People, KPRF, and SRZP in the single digits to low teens, with Yabloko removed from the party-list ballot after its August Supreme Court disqualification. This leaves the contest for fourth place highly sensitive to minor shifts in voter intention, turnout patterns, single-mandate outcomes, and the three-day voting process scheduled for 18–20 September. Reduced candidate fields and limited genuine competition have kept implied probabilities bunched near even across several systemic opposition parties, as traders price the narrow margins typical of these controlled parliamentary contests. Late campaign developments or regional variations could still reorder the lower standings before results are finalized.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$276End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from state-linked firms like FOM and WCIOM show United Russia far ahead, followed by a tight cluster among LDPR, New People, KPRF, and SRZP in the single digits to low teens, with Yabloko removed from the party-list ballot after its August Supreme Court disqualification. This leaves the contest for fourth place highly sensitive to minor shifts in voter intention, turnout patterns, single-mandate outcomes, and the three-day voting process scheduled for 18–20 September. Reduced candidate fields and limited genuine competition have kept implied probabilities bunched near even across several systemic opposition parties, as traders price the narrow margins typical of these controlled parliamentary contests. Late campaign developments or regional variations could still reorder the lower standings before results are finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
48%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
90%
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
99%
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions