Skip to main content
icon for UT-02 Republican Primary Winner

UT-02 Republican Primary Winner

icon for UT-02 Republican Primary Winner

UT-02 Republican Primary Winner

$60,270 Vol.

Polymarket

$60,270 Vol.

Karianne Lisonbee

$27,341 Vol.

No

Blake Moore

$32,929 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Blake Moore maintains a commanding lead in the June 23 Republican primary for Utah's 2nd Congressional District, with trader consensus reflecting his strong position heading into the final days. Moore's advantages include established name recognition, congressional fundraising networks, and alignment with party structures, reinforced by a recent televised debate where key issues such as data centers and federal support for the Great Salt Lake were discussed. Challenger state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee has focused on differentiation through ads and convention efforts but has not closed the gap. Late developments that could narrow odds include unusually high challenger turnout, major last-minute endorsements, or an unexpected shift among Republican primary voters, though historical patterns favor incumbents in similar contests.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$60,270
Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Blake Moore maintains a commanding lead in the June 23 Republican primary for Utah's 2nd Congressional District, with trader consensus reflecting his strong position heading into the final days. Moore's advantages include established name recognition, congressional fundraising networks, and alignment with party structures, reinforced by a recent televised debate where key issues such as data centers and federal support for the Great Salt Lake were discussed. Challenger state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee has focused on differentiation through ads and convention efforts but has not closed the gap. Late developments that could narrow odds include unusually high challenger turnout, major last-minute endorsements, or an unexpected shift among Republican primary voters, though historical patterns favor incumbents in similar contests.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$60,270
Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Related

icon for Will Eric Pratt be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?

Will Eric Pratt be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?

97%
icon for Will the Republican Party win the UT-02 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the UT-02 House seat?

94%
icon for Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

88%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"UT-02 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Blake Moore" at 100%, followed by "Karianne Lisonbee" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "UT-02 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $60.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 10, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "UT-02 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "UT-02 Republican Primary Winner" is "Blake Moore" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Karianne Lisonbee" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "UT-02 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.