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Politics·Primaries

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Elaine Luria 100.0%

James Osyf <1%

Matt Strickler <1%

Patrick Mosolf <1%

Polymarket

$12,635 Vol.

Elaine Luria 100.0%

James Osyf <1%

Matt Strickler <1%

Patrick Mosolf <1%

Polymarket

$12,635 Vol.

James Osyf

$1,629 Vol.

No

Matt Strickler

$822 Vol.

No

Patrick Mosolf

$1,712 Vol.

No

Burk Stringfellow

$821 Vol.

No

Elaine Luria

$5,024 Vol.

Yes

Nila Devanath

$1,399 Vol.

No

Nicolaus Sleister

$1,227 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Elaine Luria secured the Democratic nomination for Virginia's 2nd Congressional District in the August 4, 2026 primary, reflecting traders' consensus around her established profile as a former two-term representative and Navy veteran. Key factors include substantial early fundraising, endorsements from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and state leaders such as Gov. Abigail Spanberger, and name recognition in a competitive swing district anchored by military communities. Her opponents, including physician Nila Devanath and former USAID official Patrick Mosolf, trailed significantly in resources and visibility. With results now projected, markets price in near-certainty of her nomination ahead of the November rematch against Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans. Remaining uncertainty centers on final certification or any procedural challenges, though historical patterns in Virginia primaries suggest these are unlikely to alter the outcome.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$12,635
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Elaine Luria secured the Democratic nomination for Virginia's 2nd Congressional District in the August 4, 2026 primary, reflecting traders' consensus around her established profile as a former two-term representative and Navy veteran. Key factors include substantial early fundraising, endorsements from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and state leaders such as Gov. Abigail Spanberger, and name recognition in a competitive swing district anchored by military communities. Her opponents, including physician Nila Devanath and former USAID official Patrick Mosolf, trailed significantly in resources and visibility. With results now projected, markets price in near-certainty of her nomination ahead of the November rematch against Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans. Remaining uncertainty centers on final certification or any procedural challenges, though historical patterns in Virginia primaries suggest these are unlikely to alter the outcome.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$12,635
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Elaine Luria" at 100%, followed by "James Osyf" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $12.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Elaine Luria" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "James Osyf" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.