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Politics·Primaries

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Elaine Luria 97.5%

Nila Devanath 3.0%

James Osyf 2.8%

Burk Stringfellow <1%

Polymarket

$11,911 Vol.

Elaine Luria 97.5%

Nila Devanath 3.0%

James Osyf 2.8%

Burk Stringfellow <1%

Polymarket

$11,911 Vol.

Elaine Luria

$4,380 Vol.

98%

Nila Devanath

$1,319 Vol.

3%

James Osyf

$1,629 Vol.

3%

Burk Stringfellow

$821 Vol.

<1%

Matt Strickler

$822 Vol.

<1%

Patrick Mosolf

$1,712 Vol.

<1%

Nicolaus Sleister

$1,227 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Elaine Luria holds a commanding lead in the August 4, 2026, Democratic primary for Virginia’s 2nd congressional district due to her prior service as the district’s representative, extensive name recognition as a Navy veteran, and overwhelming fundraising edge exceeding $3.5 million in cash on hand. Major party support, including DCCC backing and endorsements from Virginia Democratic leadership, further strengthens her position against challengers such as Nila Devanath and Patrick Mosolf. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages in a low-turnout primary environment. Late developments that could still shift outcomes remain limited to unforeseen events like a health issue or major scandal in the final hours before voting.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$11,911
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Elaine Luria holds a commanding lead in the August 4, 2026, Democratic primary for Virginia’s 2nd congressional district due to her prior service as the district’s representative, extensive name recognition as a Navy veteran, and overwhelming fundraising edge exceeding $3.5 million in cash on hand. Major party support, including DCCC backing and endorsements from Virginia Democratic leadership, further strengthens her position against challengers such as Nila Devanath and Patrick Mosolf. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages in a low-turnout primary environment. Late developments that could still shift outcomes remain limited to unforeseen events like a health issue or major scandal in the final hours before voting.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$11,911
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Elaine Luria" at 98%, followed by "Nila Devanath" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $11.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Elaine Luria" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nila Devanath" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.