Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi holds a structural edge in New York’s 3rd congressional district, a seat rated Lean Democratic by major forecasters, where he prevailed in the 2024 general election. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 52% implied probability of winning the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district’s partisan composition on Long Island and Queens, Suozzi’s moderate profile, and the limited Republican field headed into the June 23 primary. The Republican Party’s 14% pricing aligns with the absence of major recent shifts in polling or fundraising that would narrow the gap. With the Democratic primary weeks away and the general election still months distant, the current consensus embeds the baseline advantage of incumbency and district lean while leaving room for movement based on primary results or later national conditions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de NY-03
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de NY-03
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
15%
Partido Demócrata
55%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$160 Vol.
15%
Partido Demócrata
$800 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi holds a structural edge in New York’s 3rd congressional district, a seat rated Lean Democratic by major forecasters, where he prevailed in the 2024 general election. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 52% implied probability of winning the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district’s partisan composition on Long Island and Queens, Suozzi’s moderate profile, and the limited Republican field headed into the June 23 primary. The Republican Party’s 14% pricing aligns with the absence of major recent shifts in polling or fundraising that would narrow the gap. With the Democratic primary weeks away and the general election still months distant, the current consensus embeds the baseline advantage of incumbency and district lean while leaving room for movement based on primary results or later national conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volumen
$960Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi holds a structural edge in New York’s 3rd congressional district, a seat rated Lean Democratic by major forecasters, where he prevailed in the 2024 general election. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 52% implied probability of winning the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district’s partisan composition on Long Island and Queens, Suozzi’s moderate profile, and the limited Republican field headed into the June 23 primary. The Republican Party’s 14% pricing aligns with the absence of major recent shifts in polling or fundraising that would narrow the gap. With the Democratic primary weeks away and the general election still months distant, the current consensus embeds the baseline advantage of incumbency and district lean while leaving room for movement based on primary results or later national conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$960Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi holds a structural edge in New York’s 3rd congressional district, a seat rated Lean Democratic by major forecasters, where he prevailed in the 2024 general election. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 52% implied probability of winning the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district’s partisan composition on Long Island and Queens, Suozzi’s moderate profile, and the limited Republican field headed into the June 23 primary. The Republican Party’s 14% pricing aligns with the absence of major recent shifts in polling or fundraising that would narrow the gap. With the Democratic primary weeks away and the general election still months distant, the current consensus embeds the baseline advantage of incumbency and district lean while leaving room for movement based on primary results or later national conditions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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