Mount Vesuvius remains in a prolonged quiescent phase at green alert level, with INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano monitoring confirming low-energy seismicity (typically under magnitude 2.0), no magmatic ground deformation, stable crater temperatures, and a multi-year decline in hydrothermal activity as of mid-2026 bulletins. This background state, following the 1944 eruption and consistent with the volcano’s current low-activity regime in statistical models of Neapolitan volcanism, underpins the 95.3% market-implied probability against a VEI 1+ event in 2026. While short-term forecasts carry inherent uncertainty and an abrupt shift in parameters such as seismicity rates or inflation could signal renewed unrest, no such precursors are evident, aligning trader consensus with the absence of near-term eruptive indicators.