Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense assessed in its latest report that the People's Liberation Army still lacks adequate capabilities for a full-scale amphibious invasion, including multi-axis landings, sustained logistics, and air-sea superiority, despite ongoing modernization and exercises emphasizing joint blockades. This assessment, alongside reduced aerial sortie rates in recent months and a pattern of gray-zone coercion rather than direct assault preparations, underpins trader consensus against an invasion before year-end. Scheduled U.S.-China diplomatic engagement and Taiwan's integrated drills with precision missiles and drones further signal continuity in deterrence postures. A sudden shift could still arise from unforeseen summit outcomes, major incidents, or rapid command changes, though structural barriers make such developments improbable in the narrow remaining window.