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icon for Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?
World·Russia

Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?

icon for Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?
World·Russia

Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$450,356 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$450,356 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31

$126,948 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station located on Tsentralna Vulytsia by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station+zoom.png Train station Location in Sloviansk: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station.jpeg Sloviansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FnDJ8Xur2CzKvGC76?g_st=isi The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station located on Tsentralna Vulytsia by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station+zoom.png Train station Location in Sloviansk: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station.jpeg Sloviansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FnDJ8Xur2CzKvGC76?g_st=isi The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces continue incremental pressure toward Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast through small-group infiltrations, glide bomb strikes, and drone attacks, while Ukrainian units have conducted recent counterattacks that reclaimed positions east of Lyman and near Ivanivka, Zarichne, and Yampil. Daily General Staff reports show limited Russian assault attempts in the sector amid heavier fighting elsewhere, such as around Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. Ukrainian defenses have disrupted several mechanized pushes and forced Russian acknowledgments of lost ground, slowing the approach to the city’s outskirts. Ongoing strikes on Sloviansk itself have increased civilian evacuations but have not altered the broader frontline dynamics. Scheduled Ukrainian command adjustments and Russian force reallocations remain key variables that could influence the pace of any future advances.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station located on Tsentralna Vulytsia by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station+zoom.png

Train station Location in Sloviansk: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station.jpeg

Sloviansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk.jpeg

Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FnDJ8Xur2CzKvGC76?g_st=isi

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station located on Tsentralna Vulytsia by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station+zoom.png Train station Location in Sloviansk: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station.jpeg Sloviansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FnDJ8Xur2CzKvGC76?g_st=isi The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$450,356
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 8:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station located on Tsentralna Vulytsia by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station+zoom.png Train station Location in Sloviansk: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station.jpeg Sloviansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FnDJ8Xur2CzKvGC76?g_st=isi The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station located on Tsentralna Vulytsia by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station+zoom.png Train station Location in Sloviansk: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station.jpeg Sloviansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FnDJ8Xur2CzKvGC76?g_st=isi The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces continue incremental pressure toward Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast through small-group infiltrations, glide bomb strikes, and drone attacks, while Ukrainian units have conducted recent counterattacks that reclaimed positions east of Lyman and near Ivanivka, Zarichne, and Yampil. Daily General Staff reports show limited Russian assault attempts in the sector amid heavier fighting elsewhere, such as around Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. Ukrainian defenses have disrupted several mechanized pushes and forced Russian acknowledgments of lost ground, slowing the approach to the city’s outskirts. Ongoing strikes on Sloviansk itself have increased civilian evacuations but have not altered the broader frontline dynamics. Scheduled Ukrainian command adjustments and Russian force reallocations remain key variables that could influence the pace of any future advances.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station located on Tsentralna Vulytsia by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station+zoom.png

Train station Location in Sloviansk: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station.jpeg

Sloviansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk.jpeg

Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FnDJ8Xur2CzKvGC76?g_st=isi

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station located on Tsentralna Vulytsia by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station+zoom.png Train station Location in Sloviansk: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station.jpeg Sloviansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FnDJ8Xur2CzKvGC76?g_st=isi The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$450,356
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 8:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 6%, followed by "June 30" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 6¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 6% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?" has generated $450.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?" is "December 31" at just 6%, with "June 30" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.