Democrats’ strong positioning to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms forms the central driver of the 66% trader-implied probability that President Trump faces impeachment before January 2029. With Republicans holding only narrow majorities, models assign Democrats roughly 71% odds of securing the chamber, enabling a majority vote on articles after January 2027. Recent Democratic statements from figures such as Rep. Jim Clyburn confirm the party would advance impeachment alongside other priorities if it regains the gavel, consistent with prior resolutions introduced by members including Rep. Al Green. Markets price near-term 2026 impeachment below 10% given the current Republican majority, but assign substantially higher odds thereafter, reflecting the procedural reality that House passage requires only simple-majority support while Senate conviction remains a separate, higher threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated66% chance
$98,991 Vol.
$98,991 Vol.
Jan 19, 2029
Earn 3.25%
66% chance
$98,991 Vol.
$98,991 Vol.
Jan 19, 2029
Earn 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats’ strong positioning to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms forms the central driver of the 66% trader-implied probability that President Trump faces impeachment before January 2029. With Republicans holding only narrow majorities, models assign Democrats roughly 71% odds of securing the chamber, enabling a majority vote on articles after January 2027. Recent Democratic statements from figures such as Rep. Jim Clyburn confirm the party would advance impeachment alongside other priorities if it regains the gavel, consistent with prior resolutions introduced by members including Rep. Al Green. Markets price near-term 2026 impeachment below 10% given the current Republican majority, but assign substantially higher odds thereafter, reflecting the procedural reality that House passage requires only simple-majority support while Senate conviction remains a separate, higher threshold.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$98,991End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats’ strong positioning to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms forms the central driver of the 66% trader-implied probability that President Trump faces impeachment before January 2029. With Republicans holding only narrow majorities, models assign Democrats roughly 71% odds of securing the chamber, enabling a majority vote on articles after January 2027. Recent Democratic statements from figures such as Rep. Jim Clyburn confirm the party would advance impeachment alongside other priorities if it regains the gavel, consistent with prior resolutions introduced by members including Rep. Al Green. Markets price near-term 2026 impeachment below 10% given the current Republican majority, but assign substantially higher odds thereafter, reflecting the procedural reality that House passage requires only simple-majority support while Senate conviction remains a separate, higher threshold.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$99,148End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democrats’ strong positioning to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms forms the central driver of the 66% trader-implied probability that President Trump faces impeachment before January 2029. With Republicans holding only narrow majorities, models assign Democrats roughly 71% odds of securing the chamber, enabling a majority vote on articles after January 2027. Recent Democratic statements from figures such as Rep. Jim Clyburn confirm the party would advance impeachment alongside other priorities if it regains the gavel, consistent with prior resolutions introduced by members including Rep. Al Green. Markets price near-term 2026 impeachment below 10% given the current Republican majority, but assign substantially higher odds thereafter, reflecting the procedural reality that House passage requires only simple-majority support while Senate conviction remains a separate, higher threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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