Redistricting through Proposition 50 fundamentally altered California's 1st congressional district, shifting it from a long-held Republican seat to one with a clear Democratic tilt of roughly D+7 based on recent statewide results. The new boundaries incorporated more Democratic-leaning areas from adjacent districts, including portions of Sonoma County, while the death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa opened the race. In the June 2026 top-two primary under the updated lines, Republican James Gallagher narrowly led Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire to advance to the November general, yet analysts across Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage and McGuire's established profile, though a Republican victory would require substantial underperformance by Democrats or an unusually favorable national environment in the final weeks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$35,032 Vol.
$35,032 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
97%
Parti républicain
2%
$35,032 Vol.
$35,032 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$26,310 Vol.
97%
Parti républicain
$8,722 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting through Proposition 50 fundamentally altered California's 1st congressional district, shifting it from a long-held Republican seat to one with a clear Democratic tilt of roughly D+7 based on recent statewide results. The new boundaries incorporated more Democratic-leaning areas from adjacent districts, including portions of Sonoma County, while the death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa opened the race. In the June 2026 top-two primary under the updated lines, Republican James Gallagher narrowly led Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire to advance to the November general, yet analysts across Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage and McGuire's established profile, though a Republican victory would require substantial underperformance by Democrats or an unusually favorable national environment in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$35,032Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting through Proposition 50 fundamentally altered California's 1st congressional district, shifting it from a long-held Republican seat to one with a clear Democratic tilt of roughly D+7 based on recent statewide results. The new boundaries incorporated more Democratic-leaning areas from adjacent districts, including portions of Sonoma County, while the death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa opened the race. In the June 2026 top-two primary under the updated lines, Republican James Gallagher narrowly led Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire to advance to the November general, yet analysts across Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage and McGuire's established profile, though a Republican victory would require substantial underperformance by Democrats or an unusually favorable national environment in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,032Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting through Proposition 50 fundamentally altered California's 1st congressional district, shifting it from a long-held Republican seat to one with a clear Democratic tilt of roughly D+7 based on recent statewide results. The new boundaries incorporated more Democratic-leaning areas from adjacent districts, including portions of Sonoma County, while the death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa opened the race. In the June 2026 top-two primary under the updated lines, Republican James Gallagher narrowly led Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire to advance to the November general, yet analysts across Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage and McGuire's established profile, though a Republican victory would require substantial underperformance by Democrats or an unusually favorable national environment in the final weeks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes