Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 has shifted the district's composition by incorporating Democratic-leaning areas such as Santa Rosa while removing rural Republican strongholds, producing a partisan voting index that favors Democrats by double digits based on recent presidential results. The January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa created an open seat ahead of the June 2 primary and possible August 4 special general, amplifying the structural advantage for Democratic candidates in the top-two format. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting these map changes and the absence of an established Republican incumbent. Late developments that could alter this positioning include an unusually strong Republican primary performance, unusually low Democratic turnout, or shifts in voter sentiment tied to national midterm dynamics before the resolution window closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$23,511 Vol.
$23,511 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
93%
Parti républicain
6%
$23,511 Vol.
$23,511 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$15,638 Vol.
93%
Parti républicain
$7,873 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 has shifted the district's composition by incorporating Democratic-leaning areas such as Santa Rosa while removing rural Republican strongholds, producing a partisan voting index that favors Democrats by double digits based on recent presidential results. The January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa created an open seat ahead of the June 2 primary and possible August 4 special general, amplifying the structural advantage for Democratic candidates in the top-two format. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting these map changes and the absence of an established Republican incumbent. Late developments that could alter this positioning include an unusually strong Republican primary performance, unusually low Democratic turnout, or shifts in voter sentiment tied to national midterm dynamics before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$23,511Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 has shifted the district's composition by incorporating Democratic-leaning areas such as Santa Rosa while removing rural Republican strongholds, producing a partisan voting index that favors Democrats by double digits based on recent presidential results. The January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa created an open seat ahead of the June 2 primary and possible August 4 special general, amplifying the structural advantage for Democratic candidates in the top-two format. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting these map changes and the absence of an established Republican incumbent. Late developments that could alter this positioning include an unusually strong Republican primary performance, unusually low Democratic turnout, or shifts in voter sentiment tied to national midterm dynamics before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,511Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 has shifted the district's composition by incorporating Democratic-leaning areas such as Santa Rosa while removing rural Republican strongholds, producing a partisan voting index that favors Democrats by double digits based on recent presidential results. The January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa created an open seat ahead of the June 2 primary and possible August 4 special general, amplifying the structural advantage for Democratic candidates in the top-two format. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting these map changes and the absence of an established Republican incumbent. Late developments that could alter this positioning include an unusually strong Republican primary performance, unusually low Democratic turnout, or shifts in voter sentiment tied to national midterm dynamics before the resolution window closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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