Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder’s strong performance in the June 2026 primary, where he secured a majority of votes while Republicans split their support, reinforces the California 9th district’s solid Democratic lean reflected in nonpartisan ratings. The district’s partisan voting index favors Democrats by roughly eight points, and the general-election matchup against Republican John McBride aligns with historical patterns of Democratic holds in similar seats. Trader consensus prices the Democratic outcome at 93.5 percent, consistent with these structural factors. A significant national political shift, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or late-developing local issue could still alter the outcome before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-09 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-09 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$15,059 Vol.
$15,059 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
94%
Parti républicain
7%
$15,059 Vol.
$15,059 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$11,243 Vol.
94%
Parti républicain
$3,817 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder’s strong performance in the June 2026 primary, where he secured a majority of votes while Republicans split their support, reinforces the California 9th district’s solid Democratic lean reflected in nonpartisan ratings. The district’s partisan voting index favors Democrats by roughly eight points, and the general-election matchup against Republican John McBride aligns with historical patterns of Democratic holds in similar seats. Trader consensus prices the Democratic outcome at 93.5 percent, consistent with these structural factors. A significant national political shift, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or late-developing local issue could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$15,059Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder’s strong performance in the June 2026 primary, where he secured a majority of votes while Republicans split their support, reinforces the California 9th district’s solid Democratic lean reflected in nonpartisan ratings. The district’s partisan voting index favors Democrats by roughly eight points, and the general-election matchup against Republican John McBride aligns with historical patterns of Democratic holds in similar seats. Trader consensus prices the Democratic outcome at 93.5 percent, consistent with these structural factors. A significant national political shift, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or late-developing local issue could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,059Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder’s strong performance in the June 2026 primary, where he secured a majority of votes while Republicans split their support, reinforces the California 9th district’s solid Democratic lean reflected in nonpartisan ratings. The district’s partisan voting index favors Democrats by roughly eight points, and the general-election matchup against Republican John McBride aligns with historical patterns of Democratic holds in similar seats. Trader consensus prices the Democratic outcome at 93.5 percent, consistent with these structural factors. A significant national political shift, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or late-developing local issue could still alter the outcome before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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