Trader consensus favors 42-45°F highs in Chicago on March 23, with 42-43°F edging ahead at 27% implied probability, driven by the National Weather Service's latest short-range forecast showing a high near 43°F amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF converge around 43°F on average, but diverge on cloud cover timing—persistent afternoon overcast from an upstream low-pressure system could cap peaks at 42°F by limiting solar insolation and diurnal heating, while brief clearing might push toward 45°F via enhanced boundary-layer mixing. Recent overnight lows in the upper 20s°F and minimal snow risk further narrow extremes, heightening focus on these tight bins ahead of the 4 p.m. NWS update.