Ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS show a tight spread for Istanbul's highest temperature on March 31, with trader consensus implying near-equal odds for 15–17°C amid mild spring conditions driven by southerly airflow over the Marmara Sea. Recent model runs over the past 48 hours indicate diurnal highs clustering around 16°C under partly cloudy skies, but differentiate outcomes through uncertainties in cloud cover timing, urban heat island amplification in central Istanbul, and subtle pressure gradient shifts that could suppress or boost peaks by 1–2°C. Turkish State Meteorological Service observations confirm current anomalies 2–3°C above March climatological averages of 13–14°C, with new 12-hour updates expected to refine resolution as the date nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Istanbul le 31 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Istanbul le 31 mars ?
17°C 25%
16°C 25%
15°C 23%
8°C ou moins 17%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
8°C ou moins
20%
9°C
5%
10°C
17%
11°C
11%
12°C
15%
13°C
15%
14°C
14%
15°C
23%
16°C
25%
17°C
25%
18°C ou plus
13%
17°C 25%
16°C 25%
15°C 23%
8°C ou moins 17%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
8°C ou moins
$464 Vol.
20%
9°C
$145 Vol.
5%
10°C
$0 Vol.
17%
11°C
$0 Vol.
11%
12°C
$0 Vol.
15%
13°C
$5 Vol.
15%
14°C
$0 Vol.
14%
15°C
$10 Vol.
23%
16°C
$0 Vol.
25%
17°C
$0 Vol.
25%
18°C ou plus
$30 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS show a tight spread for Istanbul's highest temperature on March 31, with trader consensus implying near-equal odds for 15–17°C amid mild spring conditions driven by southerly airflow over the Marmara Sea. Recent model runs over the past 48 hours indicate diurnal highs clustering around 16°C under partly cloudy skies, but differentiate outcomes through uncertainties in cloud cover timing, urban heat island amplification in central Istanbul, and subtle pressure gradient shifts that could suppress or boost peaks by 1–2°C. Turkish State Meteorological Service observations confirm current anomalies 2–3°C above March climatological averages of 13–14°C, with new 12-hour updates expected to refine resolution as the date nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 27, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Volume
$655Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS show a tight spread for Istanbul's highest temperature on March 31, with trader consensus implying near-equal odds for 15–17°C amid mild spring conditions driven by southerly airflow over the Marmara Sea. Recent model runs over the past 48 hours indicate diurnal highs clustering around 16°C under partly cloudy skies, but differentiate outcomes through uncertainties in cloud cover timing, urban heat island amplification in central Istanbul, and subtle pressure gradient shifts that could suppress or boost peaks by 1–2°C. Turkish State Meteorological Service observations confirm current anomalies 2–3°C above March climatological averages of 13–14°C, with new 12-hour updates expected to refine resolution as the date nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$655Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS show a tight spread for Istanbul's highest temperature on March 31, with trader consensus implying near-equal odds for 15–17°C amid mild spring conditions driven by southerly airflow over the Marmara Sea. Recent model runs over the past 48 hours indicate diurnal highs clustering around 16°C under partly cloudy skies, but differentiate outcomes through uncertainties in cloud cover timing, urban heat island amplification in central Istanbul, and subtle pressure gradient shifts that could suppress or boost peaks by 1–2°C. Turkish State Meteorological Service observations confirm current anomalies 2–3°C above March climatological averages of 13–14°C, with new 12-hour updates expected to refine resolution as the date nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes