Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) place Munich's high temperature on March 29 around 6-7°C, driving trader consensus toward 7°C (26%) as the slight leader amid tight clustering at 4-8°C. A persistent low-pressure trough over Central Europe has ushered cool northerly flow, suppressing temperatures below seasonal norms of 10-12°C, with recent model runs yesterday refining downward from prior warmer signals due to increased cloud cover and light precipitation risks. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread—some members dip to 4°C under thicker clouds, others reach 8-9°C with brief clearings—and urban heat island effects in Munich potentially adding 1-2°C. Uncertainty remains high with 45-55% implied odds across top outcomes; watch DWD's 12Z update for steering pattern shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Munich on March 29?
Highest temperature in Munich on March 29?
7°C 26%
8°C 25%
4°C 19%
6°C 18%
2°C or below
2%
3°C
9%
4°C
19%
5°C
16%
6°C
18%
7°C
26%
8°C
20%
9°C
14%
10°C
11%
11°C
8%
12°C or higher
4%
7°C 26%
8°C 25%
4°C 19%
6°C 18%
2°C or below
2%
3°C
9%
4°C
19%
5°C
16%
6°C
18%
7°C
26%
8°C
20%
9°C
14%
10°C
11%
11°C
8%
12°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) place Munich's high temperature on March 29 around 6-7°C, driving trader consensus toward 7°C (26%) as the slight leader amid tight clustering at 4-8°C. A persistent low-pressure trough over Central Europe has ushered cool northerly flow, suppressing temperatures below seasonal norms of 10-12°C, with recent model runs yesterday refining downward from prior warmer signals due to increased cloud cover and light precipitation risks. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread—some members dip to 4°C under thicker clouds, others reach 8-9°C with brief clearings—and urban heat island effects in Munich potentially adding 1-2°C. Uncertainty remains high with 45-55% implied odds across top outcomes; watch DWD's 12Z update for steering pattern shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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