Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for New York City's Central Park Observatory, with ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF projecting highs of 48-51°F on March 29 amid a cool mid-level trough over the Northeast. Recent 00Z model runs show slight warming trends from prior cooler biases, boosting 50-51°F (27%) over 48-49°F (21.5%), driven by potential ridging amplification and light southerly flow displacing Arctic air. Climatological March late averages hover near 50°F, but model spread of 3-5°F underscores risks from cloud cover or frontal timing. Watch 12Z updates Friday for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in NYC on March 29?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 29?
50-51°F 27%
48-49°F 20%
52-53°F 20%
47°F or below 16%
47°F or below
16%
48-49°F
20%
50-51°F
27%
52-53°F
17%
54-55°F
15%
56-57°F
7%
58-59°F
4%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
2%
66°F or higher
1%
50-51°F 27%
48-49°F 20%
52-53°F 20%
47°F or below 16%
47°F or below
16%
48-49°F
20%
50-51°F
27%
52-53°F
17%
54-55°F
15%
56-57°F
7%
58-59°F
4%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
2%
66°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for New York City's Central Park Observatory, with ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF projecting highs of 48-51°F on March 29 amid a cool mid-level trough over the Northeast. Recent 00Z model runs show slight warming trends from prior cooler biases, boosting 50-51°F (27%) over 48-49°F (21.5%), driven by potential ridging amplification and light southerly flow displacing Arctic air. Climatological March late averages hover near 50°F, but model spread of 3-5°F underscores risks from cloud cover or frontal timing. Watch 12Z updates Friday for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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