Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in San Francisco's March 29 high temperature, with market-implied odds spread across 68–76°F bins amid diverging NOAA forecast models. The GFS ensemble leans warmer (70–76°F) due to a building upper-level ridge promoting offshore flow and potential marine layer burn-off by midday, while ECMWF holds cooler (68–69°F) with persistent coastal stratus and light onshore winds capping peaks. Recent observations show overnight lows in the 50s°F and clear skies early, but timing of fog dissipation remains key—delayed clearing favors lower outcomes, early favors 74°F+. Historical March highs average 63°F, with analogs to 2023's variable spring patterns. Watch 12Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in San Francisco on March 29?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 29?
76°F or higher 42%
68-69°F 22%
70-71°F 21%
74-75°F 20%
57°F or below
1%
58-59°F
7%
60-61°F
7%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
11%
66-67°F
11%
68-69°F
22%
70-71°F
21%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
20%
76°F or higher
26%
76°F or higher 42%
68-69°F 22%
70-71°F 21%
74-75°F 20%
57°F or below
1%
58-59°F
7%
60-61°F
7%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
11%
66-67°F
11%
68-69°F
22%
70-71°F
21%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
20%
76°F or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in San Francisco's March 29 high temperature, with market-implied odds spread across 68–76°F bins amid diverging NOAA forecast models. The GFS ensemble leans warmer (70–76°F) due to a building upper-level ridge promoting offshore flow and potential marine layer burn-off by midday, while ECMWF holds cooler (68–69°F) with persistent coastal stratus and light onshore winds capping peaks. Recent observations show overnight lows in the 50s°F and clear skies early, but timing of fog dissipation remains key—delayed clearing favors lower outcomes, early favors 74°F+. Historical March highs average 63°F, with analogs to 2023's variable spring patterns. Watch 12Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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