Trader sentiment for Seoul's highest temperature on March 26 hinges on divergent ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS, with KMA's latest guidance centering around 14-15°C amid a high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula. The 30.5% implied probability for 16°C or higher reflects GFS's warmer outlier runs influenced by southerly winds, while 23.0% on exactly 14°C aligns with ECMWF consensus and historical March 26 averages near 13°C, adjusted for urban heat island effects in Seoul. Closer races at 15°C (17.5%) and 13°C (16.5%) stem from uncertainty in cold air advection from Siberia, as short-range model updates today could swing outcomes—watch KMA's evening bulletin for resolution catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Seoul on March 26?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 26?
16°C or higher 32%
14°C 22%
15°C 18%
13°C 16%
$32,366 Vol.
$32,366 Vol.
6 °C ou moins
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
5%
12°C
9%
13°C
16%
14°C
22%
15°C
18%
16°C or higher
32%
16°C or higher 32%
14°C 22%
15°C 18%
13°C 16%
$32,366 Vol.
$32,366 Vol.
6 °C ou moins
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
5%
12°C
9%
13°C
16%
14°C
22%
15°C
18%
16°C or higher
32%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Seoul's highest temperature on March 26 hinges on divergent ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS, with KMA's latest guidance centering around 14-15°C amid a high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula. The 30.5% implied probability for 16°C or higher reflects GFS's warmer outlier runs influenced by southerly winds, while 23.0% on exactly 14°C aligns with ECMWF consensus and historical March 26 averages near 13°C, adjusted for urban heat island effects in Seoul. Closer races at 15°C (17.5%) and 13°C (16.5%) stem from uncertainty in cold air advection from Siberia, as short-range model updates today could swing outcomes—watch KMA's evening bulletin for resolution catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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