Trader sentiment on Chongqing's March 28 high temperature tilts slightly toward 24°C or higher at 25.5% implied probability, driven by recent ensemble forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and global systems like GFS showing a strengthening subtropical high-pressure ridge ushering warm, dry air from the south. Historical data indicates average March highs around 18-20°C, but this year's early spring warmth—fueled by above-normal sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific—has pushed anomalies 3-5°C higher, differentiating warmer outcomes from mid-teens probabilities. Uncertainty persists from potential afternoon cloud buildup or weak frontal passages, keeping 19-20°C bins competitive at 17.5% each amid closely matched model spreads. Upcoming hourly updates could shift odds as insolation maximizes diurnal heating.