Trader consensus on Warsaw's highest temperature on March 26 heavily favors 9°C at 31.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on mild conditions with highs of 9-10°C amid a weak high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. Recent model runs show reduced spread from earlier volatility, reflecting a transitional spring air mass with southerly winds moderating typical March averages around 8-9°C. Key variables include cloud cover—persistent overcast could cap at 8°C or below (17% combined), while clearer skies might push to 11-12°C (24% odds); precipitation risk is low per Polish IMGW updates, but any cold frontal intrusion remains a tail risk for sub-7°C outcomes under 8% probability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 26?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 26?
9°C 32%
10°C 22%
11°C 18%
8°C 16%
$67,879 Vol.
$67,879 Vol.
3°C or below
<1%
4°C
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
2%
7°C
6%
8°C
16%
9°C
32%
10°C
22%
11°C
18%
12°C
6%
13°C or higher
4%
9°C 32%
10°C 22%
11°C 18%
8°C 16%
$67,879 Vol.
$67,879 Vol.
3°C or below
<1%
4°C
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
2%
7°C
6%
8°C
16%
9°C
32%
10°C
22%
11°C
18%
12°C
6%
13°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Warsaw's highest temperature on March 26 heavily favors 9°C at 31.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on mild conditions with highs of 9-10°C amid a weak high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. Recent model runs show reduced spread from earlier volatility, reflecting a transitional spring air mass with southerly winds moderating typical March averages around 8-9°C. Key variables include cloud cover—persistent overcast could cap at 8°C or below (17% combined), while clearer skies might push to 11-12°C (24% odds); precipitation risk is low per Polish IMGW updates, but any cold frontal intrusion remains a tail risk for sub-7°C outcomes under 8% probability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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