Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecast, indicating sunny skies and a high-pressure ridge ushering in warm continental air, drives trader consensus toward 26–27°C highs on March 27, with 27°C edging out at 31.5% implied probability. Historical late-March averages hover around 24°C, but above-normal sea surface temperatures in the South China Sea and light northerly winds minimize sea-breeze cooling, favoring peaks near 27°C per ECMWF and GFS ensemble models. Differentiation hinges on afternoon cloud development—scattered cumulus could cap at 26°C, while persistent clear skies enable 27–28°C urban heat amplification. Traders eye HKO's noon update amid model convergence tightening the spread.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Hong Kong on March 27?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 27?
27°C 32%
26°C 31%
25°C 26%
28°C 17%
19°C or below
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
8%
24°C
15%
25°C
20%
26°C
26%
27°C
32%
28°C
17%
29°C or higher
11%
27°C 32%
26°C 31%
25°C 26%
28°C 17%
19°C or below
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
8%
24°C
15%
25°C
20%
26°C
26%
27°C
32%
28°C
17%
29°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
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0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecast, indicating sunny skies and a high-pressure ridge ushering in warm continental air, drives trader consensus toward 26–27°C highs on March 27, with 27°C edging out at 31.5% implied probability. Historical late-March averages hover around 24°C, but above-normal sea surface temperatures in the South China Sea and light northerly winds minimize sea-breeze cooling, favoring peaks near 27°C per ECMWF and GFS ensemble models. Differentiation hinges on afternoon cloud development—scattered cumulus could cap at 26°C, while persistent clear skies enable 27–28°C urban heat amplification. Traders eye HKO's noon update amid model convergence tightening the spread.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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