Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models project Houston's March 28 high temperature at 78-79°F, the leading market outcome at 27% implied probability, driven by a post-frontal warming trend with light southerly winds enhancing diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies. Trader sentiment reflects this consensus amid tight clustering, as current upper-air patterns favor advection of mild Gulf moisture, historically yielding March highs near 76°F on similar setups. Differentiation hinges on cloud cover variability—thicker marine stratus could cap peaks at 72-73°F (20.5%) or drag to 67°F or below (21%) if a stalled boundary reinforces—while stronger heating risks 80-81°F (17%), per model spread and verified soundings. Upcoming hourly updates from NWS Houston will sharpen resolution odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Houston on March 28?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 28?
78-79°F 27%
67°F or below 21%
72-73°F 21%
74-75°F 20%
67°F or below
21%
68-69°F
7%
70-71°F
16%
72-73°F
21%
74-75°F
20%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
27%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
9%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
2%
78-79°F 27%
67°F or below 21%
72-73°F 21%
74-75°F 20%
67°F or below
21%
68-69°F
7%
70-71°F
16%
72-73°F
21%
74-75°F
20%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
27%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
9%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models project Houston's March 28 high temperature at 78-79°F, the leading market outcome at 27% implied probability, driven by a post-frontal warming trend with light southerly winds enhancing diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies. Trader sentiment reflects this consensus amid tight clustering, as current upper-air patterns favor advection of mild Gulf moisture, historically yielding March highs near 76°F on similar setups. Differentiation hinges on cloud cover variability—thicker marine stratus could cap peaks at 72-73°F (20.5%) or drag to 67°F or below (21%) if a stalled boundary reinforces—while stronger heating risks 80-81°F (17%), per model spread and verified soundings. Upcoming hourly updates from NWS Houston will sharpen resolution odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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