Ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drive trader consensus toward mid-80s highs in Houston on March 26, with implied odds peaking at 86-87°F (29.5%) amid a strengthening upper-level ridge ushering warm southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico. This setup favors above-normal temperatures—historical March averages hover around 77°F—but model spread reflects uncertainty in sea breeze timing and afternoon cloudiness, potentially capping peaks at 82-83°F (25%) if onshore flow strengthens earlier, or pushing toward 86-87°F under clearer skies. Recent 00Z runs show slight warming trends, narrowing the gap between leading bins, while low probabilities for 90°F+ stem from insufficient heat dome intensity per ensembles. Traders eye 12Z updates for resolution cues.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Houston on March 26?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 26?
84-85°F 30%
82-83°F 26%
86-87°F 19%
80-81°F 18%
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
11%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
24%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
8%
90-91°F
2%
92°F or higher
1%
84-85°F 30%
82-83°F 26%
86-87°F 19%
80-81°F 18%
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
11%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
24%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
8%
90-91°F
2%
92°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drive trader consensus toward mid-80s highs in Houston on March 26, with implied odds peaking at 86-87°F (29.5%) amid a strengthening upper-level ridge ushering warm southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico. This setup favors above-normal temperatures—historical March averages hover around 77°F—but model spread reflects uncertainty in sea breeze timing and afternoon cloudiness, potentially capping peaks at 82-83°F (25%) if onshore flow strengthens earlier, or pushing toward 86-87°F under clearer skies. Recent 00Z runs show slight warming trends, narrowing the gap between leading bins, while low probabilities for 90°F+ stem from insufficient heat dome intensity per ensembles. Traders eye 12Z updates for resolution cues.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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