Trader consensus favors mild highs of 13–14°C (46.5% combined probability), propelled by ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing a high-pressure ridge channeling warm southerly flow into Poland, with mean projections near 13.5°C for Warsaw on March 28. Key differentiators include model spread—GFS variants tilt cooler toward 11–12°C if post-frontal cooling accelerates, while ICON and UKMO sustain upper-teens potential under clearer skies—against IMGW climatology averaging 9°C (1991–2020 baseline). Recent upper-air soundings reveal a moderately unstable boundary layer boosting diurnal peaks by 1–2°C, but intruding Atlantic moisture could enhance cloud cover, capping maxima below 12°C and bolstering 20.5% odds for 7°C or lower amid 2–3°C hourly resolution uncertainties.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 28?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 28?
13°C 32%
14°C 24%
17°C or higher 22%
7°C or below 21%
7°C or below
21%
8°C
11%
9°C
16%
10°C
18%
11°C
19%
12°C
20%
13°C
24%
14°C
24%
15°C
17%
16°C
14%
17°C or higher
22%
13°C 32%
14°C 24%
17°C or higher 22%
7°C or below 21%
7°C or below
21%
8°C
11%
9°C
16%
10°C
18%
11°C
19%
12°C
20%
13°C
24%
14°C
24%
15°C
17%
16°C
14%
17°C or higher
22%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors mild highs of 13–14°C (46.5% combined probability), propelled by ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing a high-pressure ridge channeling warm southerly flow into Poland, with mean projections near 13.5°C for Warsaw on March 28. Key differentiators include model spread—GFS variants tilt cooler toward 11–12°C if post-frontal cooling accelerates, while ICON and UKMO sustain upper-teens potential under clearer skies—against IMGW climatology averaging 9°C (1991–2020 baseline). Recent upper-air soundings reveal a moderately unstable boundary layer boosting diurnal peaks by 1–2°C, but intruding Atlantic moisture could enhance cloud cover, capping maxima below 12°C and bolstering 20.5% odds for 7°C or lower amid 2–3°C hourly resolution uncertainties.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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