Trader consensus favors 17°C (35.5% implied probability) as Madrid's highest temperature on March 26, driven by the latest AEMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on 16-18°C amid a mild Atlantic airflow. Recent model runs from GFS and EURO4 show a slight cooldown from earlier projections, with upper-air ridging weakening due to an approaching low-pressure trough, tempering highs above 19°C (combined <12%). Historical March 26 averages hover around 16°C at Madrid-Barajas Airport, with recent soundings confirming stable near-surface stability. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z updates for potential shifts, as cloud cover and light precipitation risks cap extremes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Madrid on March 26?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 26?
17°C 36%
18°C 24.9%
16°C 21%
15°C or below 9%
$81,028 Vol.
$81,028 Vol.
15°C or below
9%
16°C
21%
17°C
36%
18°C
25%
19°C
6%
20°C
3%
21°C
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
17°C 36%
18°C 24.9%
16°C 21%
15°C or below 9%
$81,028 Vol.
$81,028 Vol.
15°C or below
9%
16°C
21%
17°C
36%
18°C
25%
19°C
6%
20°C
3%
21°C
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 17°C (35.5% implied probability) as Madrid's highest temperature on March 26, driven by the latest AEMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on 16-18°C amid a mild Atlantic airflow. Recent model runs from GFS and EURO4 show a slight cooldown from earlier projections, with upper-air ridging weakening due to an approaching low-pressure trough, tempering highs above 19°C (combined <12%). Historical March 26 averages hover around 16°C at Madrid-Barajas Airport, with recent soundings confirming stable near-surface stability. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z updates for potential shifts, as cloud cover and light precipitation risks cap extremes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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