Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Chengdu high temperature of 21-22°C on March 27, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model runs converging on afternoon peaks in that range amid a mild southerly airflow replacing recent cooler conditions. Historical late-March averages hover around 18-20°C in the Sichuan Basin, but current forecasts account for enhanced solar insolation under partly cloudy skies, potentially pushing maxima higher. Differentiation stems from uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and orographic influences from surrounding mountains: 23°C implies stronger subsidence and clear skies for maximal heating, while 20°C or below factors in possible lingering stratiform clouds or light northerlies from upstream fronts, as hinted in CMA updates. Upcoming 00Z model refreshes could refine these market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 27?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 27?
22°C 21%
21°C 21%
20°C 18%
19°C 17%
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
6%
17°C
2%
18°C
10%
19°C
17%
20°C
18%
21°C
21%
22°C
21%
23°C
17%
24°C or higher
8%
22°C 21%
21°C 21%
20°C 18%
19°C 17%
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
6%
17°C
2%
18°C
10%
19°C
17%
20°C
18%
21°C
21%
22°C
21%
23°C
17%
24°C or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:08 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Chengdu high temperature of 21-22°C on March 27, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model runs converging on afternoon peaks in that range amid a mild southerly airflow replacing recent cooler conditions. Historical late-March averages hover around 18-20°C in the Sichuan Basin, but current forecasts account for enhanced solar insolation under partly cloudy skies, potentially pushing maxima higher. Differentiation stems from uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and orographic influences from surrounding mountains: 23°C implies stronger subsidence and clear skies for maximal heating, while 20°C or below factors in possible lingering stratiform clouds or light northerlies from upstream fronts, as hinted in CMA updates. Upcoming 00Z model refreshes could refine these market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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