Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a high of 66°F or higher in New York City on March 26 (79.5% implied probability), driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast predicting peaks near 68°F under a dominant high-pressure ridge over the Northeast. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show tight agreement on this above-normal warmth—climatological late-March highs average 52°F—with ridging aloft diverting cold Canadian air and southerly flow advecting mild Atlantic moisture. Recent 00z runs reinforce minimal cloud interference for solar heating, while soundings indicate stable boundary layers limiting mixing. Upside risks to low 70s persist if winds lighten, but 64-65°F (10%) hedges ensemble spread; cooler outliers remain negligible absent surprise cold front. Model refreshes by midday could nudge odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in NYC on March 26?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 26?
66°F or higher 80%
64-65°F 11%
62-63°F 3.4%
60-61°F 1.0%
$33,505 Vol.
$33,505 Vol.
47°F or below
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
3%
64-65°F
11%
66°F or higher
80%
66°F or higher 80%
64-65°F 11%
62-63°F 3.4%
60-61°F 1.0%
$33,505 Vol.
$33,505 Vol.
47°F or below
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
3%
64-65°F
11%
66°F or higher
80%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a high of 66°F or higher in New York City on March 26 (79.5% implied probability), driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast predicting peaks near 68°F under a dominant high-pressure ridge over the Northeast. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show tight agreement on this above-normal warmth—climatological late-March highs average 52°F—with ridging aloft diverting cold Canadian air and southerly flow advecting mild Atlantic moisture. Recent 00z runs reinforce minimal cloud interference for solar heating, while soundings indicate stable boundary layers limiting mixing. Upside risks to low 70s persist if winds lighten, but 64-65°F (10%) hedges ensemble spread; cooler outliers remain negligible absent surprise cold front. Model refreshes by midday could nudge odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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