Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a midday high around 83°F for Austin on March 29, with 82-83°F (22.5%) and 84-85°F (21.0%) leading amid tight clustering reflecting forecast model spread. The National Weather Service's latest guidance calls for a high near 84°F under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the southern Plains, promoting warm air advection from the south, while recent soundings indicate dry mid-levels limiting convective interference. Ensemble outputs from GFS and ECMWF diverge slightly—some at 82°F with diurnally timed clouds, others pushing 86°F with clearer skies—highlighting uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and insolation. Observations this week show Austin 8°F above the 73°F climatological March 29 average, consistent with persistent ridging in a neutral ENSO regime. New model runs due early March 30 could sharpen differentiation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Austin on March 29?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 29?
84-85°F 23%
86-87°F 22%
82-83°F 21%
80-81°F 19%
73°F or below
3%
74-75°F
7%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
21%
84-85°F
23%
86-87°F
22%
88-89°F
15%
90-91°F
11%
92°F or higher
8%
84-85°F 23%
86-87°F 22%
82-83°F 21%
80-81°F 19%
73°F or below
3%
74-75°F
7%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
21%
84-85°F
23%
86-87°F
22%
88-89°F
15%
90-91°F
11%
92°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a midday high around 83°F for Austin on March 29, with 82-83°F (22.5%) and 84-85°F (21.0%) leading amid tight clustering reflecting forecast model spread. The National Weather Service's latest guidance calls for a high near 84°F under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the southern Plains, promoting warm air advection from the south, while recent soundings indicate dry mid-levels limiting convective interference. Ensemble outputs from GFS and ECMWF diverge slightly—some at 82°F with diurnally timed clouds, others pushing 86°F with clearer skies—highlighting uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and insolation. Observations this week show Austin 8°F above the 73°F climatological March 29 average, consistent with persistent ridging in a neutral ENSO regime. New model runs due early March 30 could sharpen differentiation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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