Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a Munich high of 6°C (36.5% implied probability) on March 26, edging out 5°C (29.5%) amid a cold northerly airflow ushering polar maritime air masses into Central Europe. Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) models corroborate this, projecting daytime maxima of 5-7°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds limiting insolation and diurnal warming. Historical March 26 norms hover around 11°C, but current upper-air patterns favor cooler anomalies, differentiating outcomes by 1°C via subtle variations in cloud cover and frontal timing—key uncertainties reflected in the tight 14.5% odds for 7°C. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Munich on March 26?
Highest temperature in Munich on March 26?
6°C 34%
5°C 27%
7°C 18%
4°C 11%
-1°C or below
<1%
0°C
1%
1°C
1%
2°C
1%
3°C
3%
4°C
11%
5°C
31%
6°C
34%
7°C
18%
8°C
7%
9°C or higher
2%
6°C 34%
5°C 27%
7°C 18%
4°C 11%
-1°C or below
<1%
0°C
1%
1°C
1%
2°C
1%
3°C
3%
4°C
11%
5°C
31%
6°C
34%
7°C
18%
8°C
7%
9°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a Munich high of 6°C (36.5% implied probability) on March 26, edging out 5°C (29.5%) amid a cold northerly airflow ushering polar maritime air masses into Central Europe. Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) models corroborate this, projecting daytime maxima of 5-7°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds limiting insolation and diurnal warming. Historical March 26 norms hover around 11°C, but current upper-air patterns favor cooler anomalies, differentiating outcomes by 1°C via subtle variations in cloud cover and frontal timing—key uncertainties reflected in the tight 14.5% odds for 7°C. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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