Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Madrid's highest temperature on March 29, with 14°C (24.5%) and 15°C (21.5%) edging out cooler outcomes like 11°C or below (18.5%). Latest runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Spain's AEMET indicate a high around 14-16°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds, driven by a lingering cool air mass from recent Atlantic fronts. Model ensembles show a 2-3°C spread due to variable cloud cover and boundary layer mixing, aligning with March climatology where Madrid averages 15-16°C highs but sees frequent cool snaps. AEMET's next update tomorrow could refine this as resolution nears, with urban heat island effects at Barajas station potentially nudging readings higher.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Madrid on March 29?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 29?
14°C 24%
12°C 22%
11°C or below 19%
15°C 16%
11°C or below
19%
12°C
16%
13°C
17%
14°C
24%
15°C
22%
16°C
11%
17°C
10%
18°C
9%
19°C
6%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
3%
14°C 24%
12°C 22%
11°C or below 19%
15°C 16%
11°C or below
19%
12°C
16%
13°C
17%
14°C
24%
15°C
22%
16°C
11%
17°C
10%
18°C
9%
19°C
6%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Madrid's highest temperature on March 29, with 14°C (24.5%) and 15°C (21.5%) edging out cooler outcomes like 11°C or below (18.5%). Latest runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Spain's AEMET indicate a high around 14-16°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds, driven by a lingering cool air mass from recent Atlantic fronts. Model ensembles show a 2-3°C spread due to variable cloud cover and boundary layer mixing, aligning with March climatology where Madrid averages 15-16°C highs but sees frequent cool snaps. AEMET's next update tomorrow could refine this as resolution nears, with urban heat island effects at Barajas station potentially nudging readings higher.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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