Short-term forecast variability across global and regional models is the main driver behind the evenly distributed market odds for Manila's September 15 high temperature. The western Pacific monsoon trough and scattered tropical moisture are producing uncertain cloud cover and rainfall patterns that can suppress or allow peak readings near 32–34 °C. Sea-surface temperatures remain above average, supporting baseline warmth, yet steering winds and any passing disturbances could shift outcomes several degrees. Traders are weighting the next 48-hour model runs from agencies such as PAGASA and ECMWF, which will refine land-sea breeze effects and convective timing ahead of the observation window. Historical September maxima in the city cluster around 31–33 °C, underscoring why no single threshold currently dominates implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Manille le 15 septembre ?
La température la plus élevée à Manille le 15 septembre ?
33°C 38%
32°C 31%
31°C 13%
34°C 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 sept. 2026
27°C ou moins
3%
28°C
3%
29°C
5%
30°C
7%
31°C
13%
32°C
31%
33°C
38%
34°C
13%
35°C
6%
36°C
4%
37°C ou plus
3%
33°C 38%
32°C 31%
31°C 13%
34°C 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 sept. 2026
27°C ou moins
$10 Vol.
3%
28°C
$10 Vol.
3%
29°C
$9 Vol.
5%
30°C
$0 Vol.
7%
31°C
$0 Vol.
13%
32°C
$0 Vol.
31%
33°C
$67 Vol.
38%
34°C
$26 Vol.
13%
35°C
$18 Vol.
6%
36°C
$10 Vol.
4%
37°C ou plus
$10 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast variability across global and regional models is the main driver behind the evenly distributed market odds for Manila's September 15 high temperature. The western Pacific monsoon trough and scattered tropical moisture are producing uncertain cloud cover and rainfall patterns that can suppress or allow peak readings near 32–34 °C. Sea-surface temperatures remain above average, supporting baseline warmth, yet steering winds and any passing disturbances could shift outcomes several degrees. Traders are weighting the next 48-hour model runs from agencies such as PAGASA and ECMWF, which will refine land-sea breeze effects and convective timing ahead of the observation window. Historical September maxima in the city cluster around 31–33 °C, underscoring why no single threshold currently dominates implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ET
Volume
$160Date de fin
15 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast variability across global and regional models is the main driver behind the evenly distributed market odds for Manila's September 15 high temperature. The western Pacific monsoon trough and scattered tropical moisture are producing uncertain cloud cover and rainfall patterns that can suppress or allow peak readings near 32–34 °C. Sea-surface temperatures remain above average, supporting baseline warmth, yet steering winds and any passing disturbances could shift outcomes several degrees. Traders are weighting the next 48-hour model runs from agencies such as PAGASA and ECMWF, which will refine land-sea breeze effects and convective timing ahead of the observation window. Historical September maxima in the city cluster around 31–33 °C, underscoring why no single threshold currently dominates implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$160Date de fin
15 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast variability across global and regional models is the main driver behind the evenly distributed market odds for Manila's September 15 high temperature. The western Pacific monsoon trough and scattered tropical moisture are producing uncertain cloud cover and rainfall patterns that can suppress or allow peak readings near 32–34 °C. Sea-surface temperatures remain above average, supporting baseline warmth, yet steering winds and any passing disturbances could shift outcomes several degrees. Traders are weighting the next 48-hour model runs from agencies such as PAGASA and ECMWF, which will refine land-sea breeze effects and convective timing ahead of the observation window. Historical September maxima in the city cluster around 31–33 °C, underscoring why no single threshold currently dominates implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes