Trader sentiment splits evenly at 50% implied probability each for a highest temperature of 12°C or below versus 22°C or higher at Wellington International Airport on April 8, highlighting deep uncertainty in short-range forecasts amid variable early-autumn patterns. MetService's latest update, issued April 4, projects a 20°C high with showers clearing to afternoon northerlies—mild airflow that could advect warmer subtropical air if skies clear rapidly, pushing toward 22°C+, but persistent cloud or delayed clearing risks capping at cooler levels below 13°C via reduced insolation. Ensemble model spreads reflect this divergence, with historical April extremes at the airport (lows near 5°C, highs to 25°C+) amplifying trader caution; watch evening GFS/ECMWF runs and MetService refresh for frontal timing shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Wellington on April 8?
Highest temperature in Wellington on April 8?
19°C 31%
20°C 29%
18°C 15%
22°C or higher 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
8 avr. 2026
12°C or below
3%
13°C
8%
14°C
8%
15°C
8%
16°C
9%
17°C
9%
18°C
15%
19°C
31%
20°C
29%
21°C
9%
22°C or higher
13%
19°C 31%
20°C 29%
18°C 15%
22°C or higher 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
8 avr. 2026
12°C or below
$5 Vol.
3%
13°C
$0 Vol.
8%
14°C
$0 Vol.
8%
15°C
$0 Vol.
8%
16°C
$0 Vol.
9%
17°C
$0 Vol.
9%
18°C
$0 Vol.
15%
19°C
$0 Vol.
31%
20°C
$0 Vol.
29%
21°C
$0 Vol.
9%
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment splits evenly at 50% implied probability each for a highest temperature of 12°C or below versus 22°C or higher at Wellington International Airport on April 8, highlighting deep uncertainty in short-range forecasts amid variable early-autumn patterns. MetService's latest update, issued April 4, projects a 20°C high with showers clearing to afternoon northerlies—mild airflow that could advect warmer subtropical air if skies clear rapidly, pushing toward 22°C+, but persistent cloud or delayed clearing risks capping at cooler levels below 13°C via reduced insolation. Ensemble model spreads reflect this divergence, with historical April extremes at the airport (lows near 5°C, highs to 25°C+) amplifying trader caution; watch evening GFS/ECMWF runs and MetService refresh for frontal timing shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volume
$5Date de fin
8 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment splits evenly at 50% implied probability each for a highest temperature of 12°C or below versus 22°C or higher at Wellington International Airport on April 8, highlighting deep uncertainty in short-range forecasts amid variable early-autumn patterns. MetService's latest update, issued April 4, projects a 20°C high with showers clearing to afternoon northerlies—mild airflow that could advect warmer subtropical air if skies clear rapidly, pushing toward 22°C+, but persistent cloud or delayed clearing risks capping at cooler levels below 13°C via reduced insolation. Ensemble model spreads reflect this divergence, with historical April extremes at the airport (lows near 5°C, highs to 25°C+) amplifying trader caution; watch evening GFS/ECMWF runs and MetService refresh for frontal timing shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5Date de fin
8 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment splits evenly at 50% implied probability each for a highest temperature of 12°C or below versus 22°C or higher at Wellington International Airport on April 8, highlighting deep uncertainty in short-range forecasts amid variable early-autumn patterns. MetService's latest update, issued April 4, projects a 20°C high with showers clearing to afternoon northerlies—mild airflow that could advect warmer subtropical air if skies clear rapidly, pushing toward 22°C+, but persistent cloud or delayed clearing risks capping at cooler levels below 13°C via reduced insolation. Ensemble model spreads reflect this divergence, with historical April extremes at the airport (lows near 5°C, highs to 25°C+) amplifying trader caution; watch evening GFS/ECMWF runs and MetService refresh for frontal timing shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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