Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 8, with implied probabilities evenly split at 50% across 18–26°C or higher outcomes, while cooler readings below 18°C trail at 25.5%. Current guidance from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like GFS projects highs around 24–27°C at Benito Juárez International Airport—the market's resolution station—driven by clear skies in the dry season, intense solar heating at 2,240-meter elevation, and urban heat island effects. Differentiating factors include potential northerly winds suppressing peaks toward 20–22°C or persistent high-pressure ridges pushing toward 26°C+; model ensembles show spread due to variable cloud cover. Updated SMN bulletins and ECMWF runs expected daily through April 7 will refine this outlook amid climatological April averages of 25–26°C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 8?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 8?
24°C 30%
26°C or higher 30%
23°C 26%
25°C 16%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
8 avr. 2026
16°C or below
3%
17°C
4%
18°C
4%
19°C
5%
20°C
5%
21°C
7%
22°C
11%
23°C
26%
24°C
30%
25°C
16%
26°C or higher
30%
24°C 30%
26°C or higher 30%
23°C 26%
25°C 16%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
8 avr. 2026
16°C or below
$5 Vol.
3%
17°C
$0 Vol.
4%
18°C
$0 Vol.
4%
19°C
$0 Vol.
5%
20°C
$0 Vol.
5%
21°C
$0 Vol.
7%
22°C
$0 Vol.
11%
23°C
$0 Vol.
26%
24°C
$0 Vol.
30%
25°C
$0 Vol.
16%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 8, with implied probabilities evenly split at 50% across 18–26°C or higher outcomes, while cooler readings below 18°C trail at 25.5%. Current guidance from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like GFS projects highs around 24–27°C at Benito Juárez International Airport—the market's resolution station—driven by clear skies in the dry season, intense solar heating at 2,240-meter elevation, and urban heat island effects. Differentiating factors include potential northerly winds suppressing peaks toward 20–22°C or persistent high-pressure ridges pushing toward 26°C+; model ensembles show spread due to variable cloud cover. Updated SMN bulletins and ECMWF runs expected daily through April 7 will refine this outlook amid climatological April averages of 25–26°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$5Date de fin
8 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 8, with implied probabilities evenly split at 50% across 18–26°C or higher outcomes, while cooler readings below 18°C trail at 25.5%. Current guidance from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like GFS projects highs around 24–27°C at Benito Juárez International Airport—the market's resolution station—driven by clear skies in the dry season, intense solar heating at 2,240-meter elevation, and urban heat island effects. Differentiating factors include potential northerly winds suppressing peaks toward 20–22°C or persistent high-pressure ridges pushing toward 26°C+; model ensembles show spread due to variable cloud cover. Updated SMN bulletins and ECMWF runs expected daily through April 7 will refine this outlook amid climatological April averages of 25–26°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5Date de fin
8 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 8, with implied probabilities evenly split at 50% across 18–26°C or higher outcomes, while cooler readings below 18°C trail at 25.5%. Current guidance from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like GFS projects highs around 24–27°C at Benito Juárez International Airport—the market's resolution station—driven by clear skies in the dry season, intense solar heating at 2,240-meter elevation, and urban heat island effects. Differentiating factors include potential northerly winds suppressing peaks toward 20–22°C or persistent high-pressure ridges pushing toward 26°C+; model ensembles show spread due to variable cloud cover. Updated SMN bulletins and ECMWF runs expected daily through April 7 will refine this outlook amid climatological April averages of 25–26°C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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