**Trader consensus strongly favors 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Warsaw on September 9, 2026, at 98.5% implied probability.** This reflects aggregated real-money positioning aligned with official meteorological observations showing a daily minimum of approximately 15.2°C. Station data from Warsaw (e.g., Warszawa monitoring sites) recorded the overnight low near 15°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, following a daytime high of 29°C. Atmospheric conditions featured moderate pressure and typical early-September radiative cooling overnight, without significant cold advection or cloud cover that would suppress the minimum. Historical September baselines for the region average around 14°C for minima, placing the observed value slightly above normal but consistent with recent warmer patterns. Realistic challenges remain limited. A revised station reading, measurement at a non-standard site, or unexpected microclimate effect could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but multiple independent sources converge on the 15°C threshold with minimal divergence in model outputs or observations. The market’s extreme concentration indicates traders view such outliers as improbable given the data consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Varsovie le 9 septembre ?
La température la plus basse à Varsovie le 9 septembre ?
15°C 100.0%
11°C ou moins <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$2,306 Vol.
$2,306 Vol.
9 sept. 2026
11°C ou moins
Non
12°C
Non
13°C
Non
14°C
Non
15°C
Oui
16°C
Non
17°C
Non
18°C
Non
19°C
Non
20°C
Non
21°C ou plus
Non
15°C 100.0%
11°C ou moins <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$2,306 Vol.
$2,306 Vol.
9 sept. 2026
11°C ou moins
$110 Vol.
Non
12°C
$89 Vol.
Non
13°C
$66 Vol.
Non
14°C
$147 Vol.
Non
15°C
$558 Vol.
Oui
16°C
$159 Vol.
Non
17°C
$351 Vol.
Non
18°C
$229 Vol.
Non
19°C
$197 Vol.
Non
20°C
$155 Vol.
Non
21°C ou plus
$246 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Warsaw on September 9, 2026, at 98.5% implied probability.** This reflects aggregated real-money positioning aligned with official meteorological observations showing a daily minimum of approximately 15.2°C.
Station data from Warsaw (e.g., Warszawa monitoring sites) recorded the overnight low near 15°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, following a daytime high of 29°C. Atmospheric conditions featured moderate pressure and typical early-September radiative cooling overnight, without significant cold advection or cloud cover that would suppress the minimum. Historical September baselines for the region average around 14°C for minima, placing the observed value slightly above normal but consistent with recent warmer patterns.
Realistic challenges remain limited. A revised station reading, measurement at a non-standard site, or unexpected microclimate effect could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but multiple independent sources converge on the 15°C threshold with minimal divergence in model outputs or observations. The market’s extreme concentration indicates traders view such outliers as improbable given the data consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,306Date de fin
9 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Warsaw on September 9, 2026, at 98.5% implied probability.** This reflects aggregated real-money positioning aligned with official meteorological observations showing a daily minimum of approximately 15.2°C.
Station data from Warsaw (e.g., Warszawa monitoring sites) recorded the overnight low near 15°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, following a daytime high of 29°C. Atmospheric conditions featured moderate pressure and typical early-September radiative cooling overnight, without significant cold advection or cloud cover that would suppress the minimum. Historical September baselines for the region average around 14°C for minima, placing the observed value slightly above normal but consistent with recent warmer patterns.
Realistic challenges remain limited. A revised station reading, measurement at a non-standard site, or unexpected microclimate effect could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but multiple independent sources converge on the 15°C threshold with minimal divergence in model outputs or observations. The market’s extreme concentration indicates traders view such outliers as improbable given the data consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,306Date de fin
9 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
**Trader consensus strongly favors 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Warsaw on September 9, 2026, at 98.5% implied probability.** This reflects aggregated real-money positioning aligned with official meteorological observations showing a daily minimum of approximately 15.2°C. Station data from Warsaw (e.g., Warszawa monitoring sites) recorded the overnight low near 15°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, following a daytime high of 29°C. Atmospheric conditions featured moderate pressure and typical early-September radiative cooling overnight, without significant cold advection or cloud cover that would suppress the minimum. Historical September baselines for the region average around 14°C for minima, placing the observed value slightly above normal but consistent with recent warmer patterns. Realistic challenges remain limited. A revised station reading, measurement at a non-standard site, or unexpected microclimate effect could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but multiple independent sources converge on the 15°C threshold with minimal divergence in model outputs or observations. The market’s extreme concentration indicates traders view such outliers as improbable given the data consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes