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Politique·Moyen-Orient

Trump annonce la fin des opérations militaires contre l'Iran d'ici … ?

Market icon
Politique·Moyen-Orient

Trump annonce la fin des opérations militaires contre l'Iran d'ici … ?

$26,899,101 Vol.

21 avr. 2026
Polymarket

$26,899,101 Vol.

Polymarket

21 avril

$1,253,517 Vol.

13%

30 avril

$5,335,402 Vol.

36%

31 mai

$364,538 Vol.

72%

30 juin

$1,946,199 Vol.

82%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed on April 8 following U.S. threats to target Iranian infrastructure, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned today that U.S. forces remain "locked and loaded" to resume combat operations if no deal is reached, while maintaining a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to curb Iran's oil exports and military logistics. President Trump stated in a Fox Business interview this week that the conflict is "very close to over," hinting at possible talks resuming soon, though no formal announcement ending operations has occurred and Iran has downplayed scheduled diplomacy. With the ceasefire nearing expiration around April 22, traders monitor for a breakthrough on nuclear curbs, proxy forces, and Hormuz access that could prompt resolution, against risks of escalation from stalled negotiations or Iranian retaliation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26,899,101
Date de fin
30 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 8, 2026, 10:55 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed on April 8 following U.S. threats to target Iranian infrastructure, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned today that U.S. forces remain "locked and loaded" to resume combat operations if no deal is reached, while maintaining a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to curb Iran's oil exports and military logistics. President Trump stated in a Fox Business interview this week that the conflict is "very close to over," hinting at possible talks resuming soon, though no formal announcement ending operations has occurred and Iran has downplayed scheduled diplomacy. With the ceasefire nearing expiration around April 22, traders monitor for a breakthrough on nuclear curbs, proxy forces, and Hormuz access that could prompt resolution, against risks of escalation from stalled negotiations or Iranian retaliation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26,899,101
Date de fin
30 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 8, 2026, 10:55 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« Trump annonce la fin des opérations militaires contre l'Iran d'ici … ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 11 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 30 juin » à 82%, suivi de « 31 mai » à 72%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 82¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 82% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Trump annonce la fin des opérations militaires contre l'Iran d'ici … ? » a généré $26.9 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 28, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Trump annonce la fin des opérations militaires contre l'Iran d'ici … ? », parcourez les 11 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Trump annonce la fin des opérations militaires contre l'Iran d'ici … ? » est « 30 juin » à 82%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 82% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 31 mai » à 72%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Trump annonce la fin des opérations militaires contre l'Iran d'ici … ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.