Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent election outcomes, which underpins trader consensus around the party's 94.5% implied probability. Incumbent Representative Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary with roughly 60% of the vote against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and other challengers. The general election features Republican Adriel Lam alongside minor-party candidates, with no competitive polling or fundraising data indicating a viable path for opposition. Historical patterns show the last Republican House victory in Hawaii occurred decades ago. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the nominee, or an unprecedented national partisan shift could alter dynamics before November 3, though structural factors limit realistic upside for challengers.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाHI -01 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
HI -01 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$30,137 वॉल्यूम
$30,137 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$30,137 वॉल्यूम
$30,137 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,777 वॉल्यूम
95%
Republican Party
$15,359 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent election outcomes, which underpins trader consensus around the party's 94.5% implied probability. Incumbent Representative Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary with roughly 60% of the vote against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and other challengers. The general election features Republican Adriel Lam alongside minor-party candidates, with no competitive polling or fundraising data indicating a viable path for opposition. Historical patterns show the last Republican House victory in Hawaii occurred decades ago. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the nominee, or an unprecedented national partisan shift could alter dynamics before November 3, though structural factors limit realistic upside for challengers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$30,137समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent election outcomes, which underpins trader consensus around the party's 94.5% implied probability. Incumbent Representative Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary with roughly 60% of the vote against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and other challengers. The general election features Republican Adriel Lam alongside minor-party candidates, with no competitive polling or fundraising data indicating a viable path for opposition. Historical patterns show the last Republican House victory in Hawaii occurred decades ago. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the nominee, or an unprecedented national partisan shift could alter dynamics before November 3, though structural factors limit realistic upside for challengers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$30,137समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent election outcomes, which underpins trader consensus around the party's 94.5% implied probability. Incumbent Representative Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary with roughly 60% of the vote against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and other challengers. The general election features Republican Adriel Lam alongside minor-party candidates, with no competitive polling or fundraising data indicating a viable path for opposition. Historical patterns show the last Republican House victory in Hawaii occurred decades ago. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the nominee, or an unprecedented national partisan shift could alter dynamics before November 3, though structural factors limit realistic upside for challengers.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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