Amid the 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict sparked by preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites on February 28, trader consensus reflects a fragile ceasefire holding since early April, with no verified Iranian drone, missile, or airstrike launches reported in the past week driving low probabilities across most outcomes. Iraq leads at 100% following disputed militia strikes attributed to Iranian forces, prompting Polymarket's April 14 clarification amid trader debates on attribution. Bahrain (35%) and Qatar (23%) see elevated odds due to overflights and Gulf hosting of US bases, as the US naval blockade of Iranian ports—fully implemented April 13—escalates economic pressure without direct retaliation. Pakistan-proposed US-Iran talks and Israel-Lebanon negotiations loom as potential de-escalation catalysts by April 30.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया30 अप्रैल तक ___ के खिलाफ ईरान की सैन्य कार्रवाई?
30 अप्रैल तक ___ के खिलाफ ईरान की सैन्य कार्रवाई?
$3,941,804 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
इराक
100%
बहरीन
41%
क़तर
20%
ओमान
7%
जॉर्डन
6%
लेबनान
4%
साइप्रस
4%
अज़रबैजान
4%
सीरिया
4%
अफगानिस्तान
3%
तुर्की
2%
पाकिस्तान
2%
पोलैंड
2%
हंगरी
2%
यमन
2%
यूक्रेन
2%
फ्रांस
2%
अर्मेनिया
1%
यूके
1%
इटली
1%
जॉर्जिया
1%
स्पेन
1%
जर्मनी
1%
भारत
1%
$3,941,804 वॉल्यूम
इराक
$1,957,132 वॉल्यूम
100%
बहरीन
$59,844 वॉल्यूम
41%
क़तर
$78,051 वॉल्यूम
20%
ओमान
$62,697 वॉल्यूम
7%
जॉर्डन
$11,802 वॉल्यूम
6%
लेबनान
$42,056 वॉल्यूम
4%
साइप्रस
$18,117 वॉल्यूम
4%
अज़रबैजान
$37,835 वॉल्यूम
4%
सीरिया
$12,344 वॉल्यूम
4%
अफगानिस्तान
$1,697 वॉल्यूम
3%
तुर्की
$17,738 वॉल्यूम
2%
पाकिस्तान
$13,576 वॉल्यूम
2%
पोलैंड
$35,752 वॉल्यूम
2%
हंगरी
$14,537 वॉल्यूम
2%
यमन
$8,370 वॉल्यूम
2%
यूक्रेन
$14,538 वॉल्यूम
2%
फ्रांस
$30,616 वॉल्यूम
2%
अर्मेनिया
$3,308 वॉल्यूम
1%
यूके
$25,108 वॉल्यूम
1%
इटली
$1,347 वॉल्यूम
1%
जॉर्जिया
$7,269 वॉल्यूम
1%
स्पेन
$6,898 वॉल्यूम
1%
जर्मनी
$13,163 वॉल्यूम
1%
भारत
$14,303 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict sparked by preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites on February 28, trader consensus reflects a fragile ceasefire holding since early April, with no verified Iranian drone, missile, or airstrike launches reported in the past week driving low probabilities across most outcomes. Iraq leads at 100% following disputed militia strikes attributed to Iranian forces, prompting Polymarket's April 14 clarification amid trader debates on attribution. Bahrain (35%) and Qatar (23%) see elevated odds due to overflights and Gulf hosting of US bases, as the US naval blockade of Iranian ports—fully implemented April 13—escalates economic pressure without direct retaliation. Pakistan-proposed US-Iran talks and Israel-Lebanon negotiations loom as potential de-escalation catalysts by April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 7, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$3,941,804समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 7, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict sparked by preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites on February 28, trader consensus reflects a fragile ceasefire holding since early April, with no verified Iranian drone, missile, or airstrike launches reported in the past week driving low probabilities across most outcomes. Iraq leads at 100% following disputed militia strikes attributed to Iranian forces, prompting Polymarket's April 14 clarification amid trader debates on attribution. Bahrain (35%) and Qatar (23%) see elevated odds due to overflights and Gulf hosting of US bases, as the US naval blockade of Iranian ports—fully implemented April 13—escalates economic pressure without direct retaliation. Pakistan-proposed US-Iran talks and Israel-Lebanon negotiations loom as potential de-escalation catalysts by April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
वॉल्यूम
$3,941,804समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 7, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict sparked by preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites on February 28, trader consensus reflects a fragile ceasefire holding since early April, with no verified Iranian drone, missile, or airstrike launches reported in the past week driving low probabilities across most outcomes. Iraq leads at 100% following disputed militia strikes attributed to Iranian forces, prompting Polymarket's April 14 clarification amid trader debates on attribution. Bahrain (35%) and Qatar (23%) see elevated odds due to overflights and Gulf hosting of US bases, as the US naval blockade of Iranian ports—fully implemented April 13—escalates economic pressure without direct retaliation. Pakistan-proposed US-Iran talks and Israel-Lebanon negotiations loom as potential de-escalation catalysts by April 30.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न