Amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire talks resuming this week, trader sentiment hinges on Iran's threats of "crushing retaliation" against Israel for recent strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Tehran views as violations. A US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Israeli targeted killings of over 250 Iranian leaders since late February have pressured Tehran, but IRGC sources indicate plans for a "deterrent operation" as recently as April 8. Diplomatic mediators arrived in Tehran yesterday, with President Trump signaling the conflict nears resolution, yet escalation risks persist ahead of the April 30 deadline. No major Iranian offensive has materialized in the past 30 days, reflecting restraint amid economic strain from sanctions and blockades.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया30 अप्रैल तक ___ के खिलाफ ईरान की सैन्य कार्रवाई?
30 अप्रैल तक ___ के खिलाफ ईरान की सैन्य कार्रवाई?
$3,976,763 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
इराक
100%
बहरीन
54%
क़तर
24%
ओमान
7%
जॉर्डन
6%
साइप्रस
4%
लेबनान
4%
सीरिया
4%
अज़रबैजान
4%
तुर्की
3%
अफगानिस्तान
3%
पाकिस्तान
2%
यमन
2%
पोलैंड
2%
यूक्रेन
2%
अर्मेनिया
1%
यूके
1%
इटली
1%
जॉर्जिया
1%
जर्मनी
1%
भारत
1%
फ्रांस
1%
स्पेन
1%
हंगरी
1%
$3,976,763 वॉल्यूम
इराक
$1,979,132 वॉल्यूम
100%
बहरीन
$67,713 वॉल्यूम
54%
क़तर
$79,158 वॉल्यूम
24%
ओमान
$62,717 वॉल्यूम
7%
जॉर्डन
$11,819 वॉल्यूम
6%
साइप्रस
$18,139 वॉल्यूम
4%
लेबनान
$42,073 वॉल्यूम
4%
सीरिया
$12,367 वॉल्यूम
4%
अज़रबैजान
$37,920 वॉल्यूम
4%
तुर्की
$18,602 वॉल्यूम
3%
अफगानिस्तान
$1,724 वॉल्यूम
3%
पाकिस्तान
$13,586 वॉल्यूम
2%
यमन
$8,378 वॉल्यूम
2%
पोलैंड
$35,833 वॉल्यूम
2%
यूक्रेन
$14,538 वॉल्यूम
2%
अर्मेनिया
$3,308 वॉल्यूम
1%
यूके
$25,110 वॉल्यूम
1%
इटली
$1,353 वॉल्यूम
1%
जॉर्जिया
$7,269 वॉल्यूम
1%
जर्मनी
$17,973 वॉल्यूम
1%
भारत
$15,964 वॉल्यूम
1%
फ्रांस
$31,222 वॉल्यूम
1%
स्पेन
$6,902 वॉल्यूम
1%
हंगरी
$14,578 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire talks resuming this week, trader sentiment hinges on Iran's threats of "crushing retaliation" against Israel for recent strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Tehran views as violations. A US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Israeli targeted killings of over 250 Iranian leaders since late February have pressured Tehran, but IRGC sources indicate plans for a "deterrent operation" as recently as April 8. Diplomatic mediators arrived in Tehran yesterday, with President Trump signaling the conflict nears resolution, yet escalation risks persist ahead of the April 30 deadline. No major Iranian offensive has materialized in the past 30 days, reflecting restraint amid economic strain from sanctions and blockades.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$3,976,763समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...परिणाम प्रस्तावित: हाँ
विवादित
परिणाम प्रस्तावित: हाँ
विवादित
अंतिम समीक्षा
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire talks resuming this week, trader sentiment hinges on Iran's threats of "crushing retaliation" against Israel for recent strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Tehran views as violations. A US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Israeli targeted killings of over 250 Iranian leaders since late February have pressured Tehran, but IRGC sources indicate plans for a "deterrent operation" as recently as April 8. Diplomatic mediators arrived in Tehran yesterday, with President Trump signaling the conflict nears resolution, yet escalation risks persist ahead of the April 30 deadline. No major Iranian offensive has materialized in the past 30 days, reflecting restraint amid economic strain from sanctions and blockades.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
वॉल्यूम
$3,976,763समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...परिणाम प्रस्तावित: हाँ
विवादित
परिणाम प्रस्तावित: हाँ
विवादित
अंतिम समीक्षा
Amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire talks resuming this week, trader sentiment hinges on Iran's threats of "crushing retaliation" against Israel for recent strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Tehran views as violations. A US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Israeli targeted killings of over 250 Iranian leaders since late February have pressured Tehran, but IRGC sources indicate plans for a "deterrent operation" as recently as April 8. Diplomatic mediators arrived in Tehran yesterday, with President Trump signaling the conflict nears resolution, yet escalation risks persist ahead of the April 30 deadline. No major Iranian offensive has materialized in the past 30 days, reflecting restraint amid economic strain from sanctions and blockades.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न