Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the historical rarity of the threshold events—no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the continental US per NOAA Saffir-Simpson scale, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, no M8.5+ earthquake per USGS moment magnitude scale, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact per NASA tracking—and the complete absence of any such occurrences through mid-April 2026. Early-year tropical systems like Hurricane Imelda remained sub-Category 5 without US landfall, while global seismic and volcanic activity stayed within norms, lacking precursors for escalation. With eight months remaining, including the June-November Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA's upcoming seasonal forecast and real-time monitoring from USGS and NASA could shift odds if models signal heightened risks from neutral ENSO conditions.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में प्राकृतिक आपदा?
2026 में प्राकृतिक आपदा?
हाँ
$203,829 वॉल्यूम
$203,829 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$203,829 वॉल्यूम
$203,829 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the historical rarity of the threshold events—no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the continental US per NOAA Saffir-Simpson scale, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, no M8.5+ earthquake per USGS moment magnitude scale, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact per NASA tracking—and the complete absence of any such occurrences through mid-April 2026. Early-year tropical systems like Hurricane Imelda remained sub-Category 5 without US landfall, while global seismic and volcanic activity stayed within norms, lacking precursors for escalation. With eight months remaining, including the June-November Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA's upcoming seasonal forecast and real-time monitoring from USGS and NASA could shift odds if models signal heightened risks from neutral ENSO conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$203,829समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the historical rarity of the threshold events—no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the continental US per NOAA Saffir-Simpson scale, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, no M8.5+ earthquake per USGS moment magnitude scale, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact per NASA tracking—and the complete absence of any such occurrences through mid-April 2026. Early-year tropical systems like Hurricane Imelda remained sub-Category 5 without US landfall, while global seismic and volcanic activity stayed within norms, lacking precursors for escalation. With eight months remaining, including the June-November Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA's upcoming seasonal forecast and real-time monitoring from USGS and NASA could shift odds if models signal heightened risks from neutral ENSO conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
वॉल्यूम
$203,829समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the historical rarity of the threshold events—no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the continental US per NOAA Saffir-Simpson scale, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, no M8.5+ earthquake per USGS moment magnitude scale, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact per NASA tracking—and the complete absence of any such occurrences through mid-April 2026. Early-year tropical systems like Hurricane Imelda remained sub-Category 5 without US landfall, while global seismic and volcanic activity stayed within norms, lacking precursors for escalation. With eight months remaining, including the June-November Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA's upcoming seasonal forecast and real-time monitoring from USGS and NASA could shift odds if models signal heightened risks from neutral ENSO conditions.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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