Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of 800–900B at 32% implied probability, closely trailed by 900B–1T at 25.5%, reflecting uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariffs and trade agreements amid robust domestic demand. February Bureau of Economic Analysis data showed the monthly goods and services deficit widening modestly to $57.3 billion—less than the forecasted $61 billion—as imports of capital goods and consumer products rose alongside export gains, with the 12-month trailing deficit at $776 billion and year-to-date sharply down from 2025 levels. The tight race persists due to mixed signals: new market-opening deals with the EU, UK, Australia, Indonesia, and Israel boosting exports, offset by strong US growth fueling imports despite Section 301 and 232 tariffs. Separation could come from March trade data (due early May), Federal Reserve rate decisions affecting the dollar, or negotiation breakthroughs on bilateral imbalances.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$19,128 वॉल्यूम
$19,128 वॉल्यूम
28 फ़र, 2027
<500B
8%
500–600B
3%
600–700B
7%
700–800B
13%
800–900B
32%
900B–1T
20%
1T–1.1T
12%
1.1T+
8%
$19,128 वॉल्यूम
$19,128 वॉल्यूम
28 फ़र, 2027
<500B
$16,427 वॉल्यूम
8%
500–600B
$225 वॉल्यूम
3%
600–700B
$244 वॉल्यूम
7%
700–800B
$289 वॉल्यूम
13%
800–900B
$482 वॉल्यूम
32%
900B–1T
$765 वॉल्यूम
20%
1T–1.1T
$239 वॉल्यूम
12%
1.1T+
$457 वॉल्यूम
8%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of 800–900B at 32% implied probability, closely trailed by 900B–1T at 25.5%, reflecting uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariffs and trade agreements amid robust domestic demand. February Bureau of Economic Analysis data showed the monthly goods and services deficit widening modestly to $57.3 billion—less than the forecasted $61 billion—as imports of capital goods and consumer products rose alongside export gains, with the 12-month trailing deficit at $776 billion and year-to-date sharply down from 2025 levels. The tight race persists due to mixed signals: new market-opening deals with the EU, UK, Australia, Indonesia, and Israel boosting exports, offset by strong US growth fueling imports despite Section 301 and 232 tariffs. Separation could come from March trade data (due early May), Federal Reserve rate decisions affecting the dollar, or negotiation breakthroughs on bilateral imbalances.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$19,128समाप्ति तिथि
28 फ़र, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of 800–900B at 32% implied probability, closely trailed by 900B–1T at 25.5%, reflecting uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariffs and trade agreements amid robust domestic demand. February Bureau of Economic Analysis data showed the monthly goods and services deficit widening modestly to $57.3 billion—less than the forecasted $61 billion—as imports of capital goods and consumer products rose alongside export gains, with the 12-month trailing deficit at $776 billion and year-to-date sharply down from 2025 levels. The tight race persists due to mixed signals: new market-opening deals with the EU, UK, Australia, Indonesia, and Israel boosting exports, offset by strong US growth fueling imports despite Section 301 and 232 tariffs. Separation could come from March trade data (due early May), Federal Reserve rate decisions affecting the dollar, or negotiation breakthroughs on bilateral imbalances.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$19,128समाप्ति तिथि
28 फ़र, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of 800–900B at 32% implied probability, closely trailed by 900B–1T at 25.5%, reflecting uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariffs and trade agreements amid robust domestic demand. February Bureau of Economic Analysis data showed the monthly goods and services deficit widening modestly to $57.3 billion—less than the forecasted $61 billion—as imports of capital goods and consumer products rose alongside export gains, with the 12-month trailing deficit at $776 billion and year-to-date sharply down from 2025 levels. The tight race persists due to mixed signals: new market-opening deals with the EU, UK, Australia, Indonesia, and Israel boosting exports, offset by strong US growth fueling imports despite Section 301 and 232 tariffs. Separation could come from March trade data (due early May), Federal Reserve rate decisions affecting the dollar, or negotiation breakthroughs on bilateral imbalances.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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