Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52% implied probability for 2026 ranking second-hottest on record globally, with 36% odds for first, reflecting NOAA's March outlook of 98.4% chance for a top-5 finish amid the decade's record warmth. Q1 2026 delivered top-five monthly rankings—January and February fifth-warmest, March fourth (NOAA, Copernicus ERA5 data)—despite fading La Niña cooling, with sea surface temperatures rebounding near records. NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts El Niño emergence by June-August (62% chance), persisting through year-end, which could boost second-half anomalies and challenge 2024's top spot or surpass tied 2023/2025 runners-up. Uncertainty hinges on El Niño strength and aerosol influences; watch April-May Copernicus bulletins and quarterly ENSO updates for shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयारिकॉर्ड पर सबसे गर्म वर्षों में 2026 का स्थान कहाँ होगा?
रिकॉर्ड पर सबसे गर्म वर्षों में 2026 का स्थान कहाँ होगा?
2 52%
1 36%
4 5.0%
3 4.5%
$2,623,045 वॉल्यूम
$2,623,045 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
1
36%
2
52%
3
5%
4
5%
5
1%
6 या उससे कम
3%
2 52%
1 36%
4 5.0%
3 4.5%
$2,623,045 वॉल्यूम
$2,623,045 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
1
$414,561 वॉल्यूम
36%
2
$289,465 वॉल्यूम
52%
3
$387,897 वॉल्यूम
5%
4
$386,834 वॉल्यूम
5%
5
$697,969 वॉल्यूम
1%
6 या उससे कम
$446,318 वॉल्यूम
3%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52% implied probability for 2026 ranking second-hottest on record globally, with 36% odds for first, reflecting NOAA's March outlook of 98.4% chance for a top-5 finish amid the decade's record warmth. Q1 2026 delivered top-five monthly rankings—January and February fifth-warmest, March fourth (NOAA, Copernicus ERA5 data)—despite fading La Niña cooling, with sea surface temperatures rebounding near records. NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts El Niño emergence by June-August (62% chance), persisting through year-end, which could boost second-half anomalies and challenge 2024's top spot or surpass tied 2023/2025 runners-up. Uncertainty hinges on El Niño strength and aerosol influences; watch April-May Copernicus bulletins and quarterly ENSO updates for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,623,045समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52% implied probability for 2026 ranking second-hottest on record globally, with 36% odds for first, reflecting NOAA's March outlook of 98.4% chance for a top-5 finish amid the decade's record warmth. Q1 2026 delivered top-five monthly rankings—January and February fifth-warmest, March fourth (NOAA, Copernicus ERA5 data)—despite fading La Niña cooling, with sea surface temperatures rebounding near records. NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts El Niño emergence by June-August (62% chance), persisting through year-end, which could boost second-half anomalies and challenge 2024's top spot or surpass tied 2023/2025 runners-up. Uncertainty hinges on El Niño strength and aerosol influences; watch April-May Copernicus bulletins and quarterly ENSO updates for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$2,623,045समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52% implied probability for 2026 ranking second-hottest on record globally, with 36% odds for first, reflecting NOAA's March outlook of 98.4% chance for a top-5 finish amid the decade's record warmth. Q1 2026 delivered top-five monthly rankings—January and February fifth-warmest, March fourth (NOAA, Copernicus ERA5 data)—despite fading La Niña cooling, with sea surface temperatures rebounding near records. NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts El Niño emergence by June-August (62% chance), persisting through year-end, which could boost second-half anomalies and challenge 2024's top spot or surpass tied 2023/2025 runners-up. Uncertainty hinges on El Niño strength and aerosol influences; watch April-May Copernicus bulletins and quarterly ENSO updates for shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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