Amid heightened US-Iran tensions, the US naval blockade imposed on April 13 has slashed daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz—handling one-fifth of global oil consumption—to under 20 vessels from pre-crisis averages exceeding 100, per IMF PortWatch data. This embeds a geopolitical risk premium into Brent crude, which surged above $101 per barrel on April 13 amid supply disruption fears and elevated tanker insurance rates. Sporadic transits, including 19 vessels on April 14 and Iran-linked tankers, reflect partial deterrence circumvention, but trader consensus on Polymarket assigns modest implied probabilities to threshold volumes by April 30. Key catalysts include the two-week ceasefire's April 22 expiration, potential Iranian retaliation, and ongoing talks for Omani-side safe passage.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या __ जहाज अप्रैल के अंत तक किसी भी दिन होर्मुज जलडमरूमध्य से गुज़रेंगे?
क्या __ जहाज अप्रैल के अंत तक किसी भी दिन होर्मुज जलडमरूमध्य से गुज़रेंगे?
$400,347 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
20+
67%
40+
46%
60+
36%
80+
23%
$400,347 वॉल्यूम
20+
$168,954 वॉल्यूम
67%
40+
$64,234 वॉल्यूम
46%
60+
$65,123 वॉल्यूम
36%
80+
$103,113 वॉल्यूम
23%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid heightened US-Iran tensions, the US naval blockade imposed on April 13 has slashed daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz—handling one-fifth of global oil consumption—to under 20 vessels from pre-crisis averages exceeding 100, per IMF PortWatch data. This embeds a geopolitical risk premium into Brent crude, which surged above $101 per barrel on April 13 amid supply disruption fears and elevated tanker insurance rates. Sporadic transits, including 19 vessels on April 14 and Iran-linked tankers, reflect partial deterrence circumvention, but trader consensus on Polymarket assigns modest implied probabilities to threshold volumes by April 30. Key catalysts include the two-week ceasefire's April 22 expiration, potential Iranian retaliation, and ongoing talks for Omani-side safe passage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$400,347समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid heightened US-Iran tensions, the US naval blockade imposed on April 13 has slashed daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz—handling one-fifth of global oil consumption—to under 20 vessels from pre-crisis averages exceeding 100, per IMF PortWatch data. This embeds a geopolitical risk premium into Brent crude, which surged above $101 per barrel on April 13 amid supply disruption fears and elevated tanker insurance rates. Sporadic transits, including 19 vessels on April 14 and Iran-linked tankers, reflect partial deterrence circumvention, but trader consensus on Polymarket assigns modest implied probabilities to threshold volumes by April 30. Key catalysts include the two-week ceasefire's April 22 expiration, potential Iranian retaliation, and ongoing talks for Omani-side safe passage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
वॉल्यूम
$400,347समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid heightened US-Iran tensions, the US naval blockade imposed on April 13 has slashed daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz—handling one-fifth of global oil consumption—to under 20 vessels from pre-crisis averages exceeding 100, per IMF PortWatch data. This embeds a geopolitical risk premium into Brent crude, which surged above $101 per barrel on April 13 amid supply disruption fears and elevated tanker insurance rates. Sporadic transits, including 19 vessels on April 14 and Iran-linked tankers, reflect partial deterrence circumvention, but trader consensus on Polymarket assigns modest implied probabilities to threshold volumes by April 30. Key catalysts include the two-week ceasefire's April 22 expiration, potential Iranian retaliation, and ongoing talks for Omani-side safe passage.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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