Short-term forecast uncertainty drives the closely matched odds for NYC's September 16 daily minimum temperature, with 62–65°F bins leading at 28–29% implied probability amid model spread. Ensemble guidance from NOAA and other agencies shows typical mid-September variability, where a passing front or variable cloud cover could shift the low by several degrees, while clear, calm conditions favor values near seasonal normals of 60–65°F. Historical data indicate rare excursions below 55°F or above 70°F this early in fall, consistent with the 23–24% tails. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours, particularly refinements to boundary-layer and advection patterns, will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in NYC on September 16?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 16?
55°F or below 48%
74°F or higher 47%
66-67°F 38%
56-57°F 37%
BARU
BARU
Sep 16, 2026
55°F or below
48%
56-57°F
37%
58-59°F
37%
60-61°F
37%
62-63°F
29%
64-65°F
28%
66-67°F
38%
68-69°F
37%
70-71°F
37%
72-73°F
37%
74°F or higher
47%
55°F or below 48%
74°F or higher 47%
66-67°F 38%
56-57°F 37%
BARU
BARU
Sep 16, 2026
55°F or below
$0 Vol.
48%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
37%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
37%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
37%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
29%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
28%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
38%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
37%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
37%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
37%
74°F or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty drives the closely matched odds for NYC's September 16 daily minimum temperature, with 62–65°F bins leading at 28–29% implied probability amid model spread. Ensemble guidance from NOAA and other agencies shows typical mid-September variability, where a passing front or variable cloud cover could shift the low by several degrees, while clear, calm conditions favor values near seasonal normals of 60–65°F. Historical data indicate rare excursions below 55°F or above 70°F this early in fall, consistent with the 23–24% tails. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours, particularly refinements to boundary-layer and advection patterns, will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty drives the closely matched odds for NYC's September 16 daily minimum temperature, with 62–65°F bins leading at 28–29% implied probability amid model spread. Ensemble guidance from NOAA and other agencies shows typical mid-September variability, where a passing front or variable cloud cover could shift the low by several degrees, while clear, calm conditions favor values near seasonal normals of 60–65°F. Historical data indicate rare excursions below 55°F or above 70°F this early in fall, consistent with the 23–24% tails. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours, particularly refinements to boundary-layer and advection patterns, will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast uncertainty drives the closely matched odds for NYC's September 16 daily minimum temperature, with 62–65°F bins leading at 28–29% implied probability amid model spread. Ensemble guidance from NOAA and other agencies shows typical mid-September variability, where a passing front or variable cloud cover could shift the low by several degrees, while clear, calm conditions favor values near seasonal normals of 60–65°F. Historical data indicate rare excursions below 55°F or above 70°F this early in fall, consistent with the 23–24% tails. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours, particularly refinements to boundary-layer and advection patterns, will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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