Recent June 2026 PPI data, showing a 5.5% year-over-year rise—well below the 6.2% consensus forecast—and a 0.3% monthly decline driven by a sharp 1.4% drop in goods prices (particularly energy), has anchored trader sentiment toward further cooling. This outcome, the lowest in three months following downward revisions to prior readings, reinforces expectations for July 2026 YoY inflation to moderate below 5.2%, reflected in the 63.5% implied probability on ≤5.1%. Core measures also eased, with the ex-food-and-energy rate at 4.7%, signaling broader disinflation amid softer commodity costs. The August 13 release remains the key catalyst, with markets pricing in continued moderation consistent with recent BLS trends rather than a rebound.