Recent advance goods trade data released July 28 positioned the 70-80B outcome as the clear market leader at 80.5% implied probability. The goods deficit narrowed to $101.5 billion in June from $105.9 billion in May, driven by $8.2 billion lower imports and modestly softer exports, reflecting fading inventory restocking. Adding the typical services surplus near $29 billion produces a full goods-and-services deficit squarely in the 70-80B range, consistent with May’s $77.6 billion print and the $73 billion consensus forecast. Traders appear to view the upcoming August 4 BEA release as unlikely to deviate materially absent major revisions, keeping probabilities concentrated while acknowledging potential for small shifts from services or seasonal adjustments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui70-80B 81%
60-70B 11%
80-90B <1%
50-60B <1%
BARU
BARU
Aug 4, 2026
<50B
<1%
50-60B
1%
60-70B
11%
70-80B
81%
80-90B
1%
90-100B
1%
100B+
<1%
70-80B 81%
60-70B 11%
80-90B <1%
50-60B <1%
BARU
BARU
Aug 4, 2026
<50B
$397 Vol.
<1%
50-60B
$403 Vol.
1%
60-70B
$564 Vol.
11%
70-80B
$7,312 Vol.
81%
80-90B
$356 Vol.
1%
90-100B
$356 Vol.
1%
100B+
$467 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent advance goods trade data released July 28 positioned the 70-80B outcome as the clear market leader at 80.5% implied probability. The goods deficit narrowed to $101.5 billion in June from $105.9 billion in May, driven by $8.2 billion lower imports and modestly softer exports, reflecting fading inventory restocking. Adding the typical services surplus near $29 billion produces a full goods-and-services deficit squarely in the 70-80B range, consistent with May’s $77.6 billion print and the $73 billion consensus forecast. Traders appear to view the upcoming August 4 BEA release as unlikely to deviate materially absent major revisions, keeping probabilities concentrated while acknowledging potential for small shifts from services or seasonal adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ET
Volume
$9,854Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent advance goods trade data released July 28 positioned the 70-80B outcome as the clear market leader at 80.5% implied probability. The goods deficit narrowed to $101.5 billion in June from $105.9 billion in May, driven by $8.2 billion lower imports and modestly softer exports, reflecting fading inventory restocking. Adding the typical services surplus near $29 billion produces a full goods-and-services deficit squarely in the 70-80B range, consistent with May’s $77.6 billion print and the $73 billion consensus forecast. Traders appear to view the upcoming August 4 BEA release as unlikely to deviate materially absent major revisions, keeping probabilities concentrated while acknowledging potential for small shifts from services or seasonal adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$9,854Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent advance goods trade data released July 28 positioned the 70-80B outcome as the clear market leader at 80.5% implied probability. The goods deficit narrowed to $101.5 billion in June from $105.9 billion in May, driven by $8.2 billion lower imports and modestly softer exports, reflecting fading inventory restocking. Adding the typical services surplus near $29 billion produces a full goods-and-services deficit squarely in the 70-80B range, consistent with May’s $77.6 billion print and the $73 billion consensus forecast. Traders appear to view the upcoming August 4 BEA release as unlikely to deviate materially absent major revisions, keeping probabilities concentrated while acknowledging potential for small shifts from services or seasonal adjustments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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