The Federal Reserve’s unanimous September 16 decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, combined with the Summary of Economic Projections, forms the core driver of the 81.5% market-implied odds for at least one additional increase before year-end. Officials marked up their median year-end 2026 rate forecast to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants projecting further tightening amid headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in August and core measures remaining above the 2% target. Elevated energy prices stemming from geopolitical tensions, alongside tariff effects and resilient growth, have kept inflation risks tilted upward. Key near-term catalysts include the October 27-28 and December 8-9 FOMC meetings, where incoming CPI and labor data will shape whether the committee delivers the additional quarter-point move now embedded in the dot plot.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
81% probabilità
NUOVO
$18,223 Vol.
NUOVO
$18,223 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Sì
81% probabilità
NUOVO
$18,223 Vol.
NUOVO
$18,223 Vol.
8 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s unanimous September 16 decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, combined with the Summary of Economic Projections, forms the core driver of the 81.5% market-implied odds for at least one additional increase before year-end. Officials marked up their median year-end 2026 rate forecast to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants projecting further tightening amid headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in August and core measures remaining above the 2% target. Elevated energy prices stemming from geopolitical tensions, alongside tariff effects and resilient growth, have kept inflation risks tilted upward. Key near-term catalysts include the October 27-28 and December 8-9 FOMC meetings, where incoming CPI and labor data will shape whether the committee delivers the additional quarter-point move now embedded in the dot plot.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$18,223Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s unanimous September 16 decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, combined with the Summary of Economic Projections, forms the core driver of the 81.5% market-implied odds for at least one additional increase before year-end. Officials marked up their median year-end 2026 rate forecast to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants projecting further tightening amid headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in August and core measures remaining above the 2% target. Elevated energy prices stemming from geopolitical tensions, alongside tariff effects and resilient growth, have kept inflation risks tilted upward. Key near-term catalysts include the October 27-28 and December 8-9 FOMC meetings, where incoming CPI and labor data will shape whether the committee delivers the additional quarter-point move now embedded in the dot plot.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,223Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve’s unanimous September 16 decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, combined with the Summary of Economic Projections, forms the core driver of the 81.5% market-implied odds for at least one additional increase before year-end. Officials marked up their median year-end 2026 rate forecast to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants projecting further tightening amid headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in August and core measures remaining above the 2% target. Elevated energy prices stemming from geopolitical tensions, alongside tariff effects and resilient growth, have kept inflation risks tilted upward. Key near-term catalysts include the October 27-28 and December 8-9 FOMC meetings, where incoming CPI and labor data will shape whether the committee delivers the additional quarter-point move now embedded in the dot plot.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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