The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate increase on September 16 to a 3.75–4.00 percent target range, its first hike since 2023, underpins the 85.5 percent market-implied odds of at least one additional move before year-end. Elevated August CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year, driven by energy and shelter components, alongside hawkish comments from Chair Kevin Warsh on persistent price pressures, reinforced the shift toward tighter policy. Updated FOMC projections showed 16 of 18 participants anticipating further increases, aligning with futures pricing an 87 percent chance of another quarter-point hike. Traders are monitoring October labor and inflation data plus the next FOMC meeting for confirmation of the tightening path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
86% probabilità
$80,447 Vol.
$80,447 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Sì
86% probabilità
$80,447 Vol.
$80,447 Vol.
8 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate increase on September 16 to a 3.75–4.00 percent target range, its first hike since 2023, underpins the 85.5 percent market-implied odds of at least one additional move before year-end. Elevated August CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year, driven by energy and shelter components, alongside hawkish comments from Chair Kevin Warsh on persistent price pressures, reinforced the shift toward tighter policy. Updated FOMC projections showed 16 of 18 participants anticipating further increases, aligning with futures pricing an 87 percent chance of another quarter-point hike. Traders are monitoring October labor and inflation data plus the next FOMC meeting for confirmation of the tightening path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$80,447Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate increase on September 16 to a 3.75–4.00 percent target range, its first hike since 2023, underpins the 85.5 percent market-implied odds of at least one additional move before year-end. Elevated August CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year, driven by energy and shelter components, alongside hawkish comments from Chair Kevin Warsh on persistent price pressures, reinforced the shift toward tighter policy. Updated FOMC projections showed 16 of 18 participants anticipating further increases, aligning with futures pricing an 87 percent chance of another quarter-point hike. Traders are monitoring October labor and inflation data plus the next FOMC meeting for confirmation of the tightening path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$80,447Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate increase on September 16 to a 3.75–4.00 percent target range, its first hike since 2023, underpins the 85.5 percent market-implied odds of at least one additional move before year-end. Elevated August CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year, driven by energy and shelter components, alongside hawkish comments from Chair Kevin Warsh on persistent price pressures, reinforced the shift toward tighter policy. Updated FOMC projections showed 16 of 18 participants anticipating further increases, aligning with futures pricing an 87 percent chance of another quarter-point hike. Traders are monitoring October labor and inflation data plus the next FOMC meeting for confirmation of the tightening path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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