The September 16, 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75-4.00% range, coupled with a revised dot plot showing a 4.1% median endpoint for 2026 and 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional hike, forms the core driver behind the 86% market-implied probability. Persistent core PCE inflation near 3.4% and headline readings revised to 3.7%, alongside resilient GDP growth projections now at 2.3% and a stable labor market, have reinforced the hawkish tilt under Chair Warsh amid energy price pressures. Futures markets align closely, pricing roughly 88% odds of further tightening before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the September 30 PCE release and subsequent FOMC meetings, where incoming data on inflation and growth will shape the path beyond the current 4.1% median projection.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
87% probabilità
$133,622 Vol.
$133,622 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Sì
87% probabilità
$133,622 Vol.
$133,622 Vol.
8 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The September 16, 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75-4.00% range, coupled with a revised dot plot showing a 4.1% median endpoint for 2026 and 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional hike, forms the core driver behind the 86% market-implied probability. Persistent core PCE inflation near 3.4% and headline readings revised to 3.7%, alongside resilient GDP growth projections now at 2.3% and a stable labor market, have reinforced the hawkish tilt under Chair Warsh amid energy price pressures. Futures markets align closely, pricing roughly 88% odds of further tightening before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the September 30 PCE release and subsequent FOMC meetings, where incoming data on inflation and growth will shape the path beyond the current 4.1% median projection.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$133,622Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The September 16, 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75-4.00% range, coupled with a revised dot plot showing a 4.1% median endpoint for 2026 and 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional hike, forms the core driver behind the 86% market-implied probability. Persistent core PCE inflation near 3.4% and headline readings revised to 3.7%, alongside resilient GDP growth projections now at 2.3% and a stable labor market, have reinforced the hawkish tilt under Chair Warsh amid energy price pressures. Futures markets align closely, pricing roughly 88% odds of further tightening before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the September 30 PCE release and subsequent FOMC meetings, where incoming data on inflation and growth will shape the path beyond the current 4.1% median projection.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$133,622Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The September 16, 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75-4.00% range, coupled with a revised dot plot showing a 4.1% median endpoint for 2026 and 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional hike, forms the core driver behind the 86% market-implied probability. Persistent core PCE inflation near 3.4% and headline readings revised to 3.7%, alongside resilient GDP growth projections now at 2.3% and a stable labor market, have reinforced the hawkish tilt under Chair Warsh amid energy price pressures. Futures markets align closely, pricing roughly 88% odds of further tightening before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the September 30 PCE release and subsequent FOMC meetings, where incoming data on inflation and growth will shape the path beyond the current 4.1% median projection.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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